In July, the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the mid-year Cattle report, which provided a snapshot of U.S. cattle inventory as well as a glimpse into cow-calf producers’ intentions for retaining heifers.

U.S. beef trade continues to adjust to supply and demand shocks. The latest data release from the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) shows the impact of these shocks on U.S beef exports and imports.

Last Friday, the USDA released the July Cattle on Feed report. Feedlot placements in June were 1.8 million head, 102.1% of last year. June marketings were 1.97 million head, up 1.3% year over year.

The Choice boxed beef price dropped to $200.47 per hundredweight on July 17, the lowest Choice boxed beef price since December 2017. Both supply and demand factors are at work pushing wholesale beef prices lower.

No segment of the cattle industry has been spared from the uncertainty and turmoil driven by COVID-19. However, the dynamics for the slaughter cow market have been a little different than those for the live cattle coming from feedlots that have garnered the most discussion due to plant disruptions.

The 2019 beef production forecast was reduced marginally from the previous month to 27.2 billion pounds as expected fourth-quarter production more than offset a slight increase in expected second-quarter production.

The past several months have seen considerable volatility in cattle and grain markets, and it is doubtful the volatility will fall off over the next several weeks. Repeated storms across the Upper Midwest have delayed a lot of corn planting that will likely become soybean plantings. The immediate forecast shows little prospects of drying out and heating up, and the continuous trade-related surprises … Well, at this point in time, I am less surprised. I would be surprised without the emergence of news or announcement, and a Cattle on Feed report. Let's talk about that.

May is the season of severe storms in Oklahoma. The week leading up to Memorial Day included numerous severe storms and several tornadoes in the state with lots of damage and, most regrettably, several injuries and fatalities. A bit more unusual this year is the persistent pattern of wet weather. 

The latest USDA-NASS Cattle on Feed (COF) report pegged April 1 feedlot inventories at 11.96 million head – 102 percent of last year and a record April level for the data series, which started in 1996.

1. Corn will be king (again)

The USDA Prospective Plantings report was released at the end of March and showed estimates of corn regaining the crown from soybeans as the crop with the most planted acreage in the U.S. Prospective corn planted area is estimated at 92.8 million acres, which is 4 percent or about 3.66 million acres above last year.