Christmas shoppers are familiar with Black Friday, the day when spending is strong enough to put many stores’ annual budgets finally into the black. A similar principle has applied to cattle markets, except the calendar is flipped. Strong cattle sales in the spring must be strong enough to balance the trend of dropping prices in the fall. And in recent years, that drop has slid into a problematic trend.

Despite mounting pressures on milk prices, the size of the U.S. dairy herd is expected to grow in 2018. It has a head start, with cow and replacement heifer numbers up a combined 80,100 compared to a year earlier, based on USDA’s semiannual estimate of dairy cows and heifers. Meanwhile, prices for both replacement and cull cows have been weaker.

By the time you read this, I’ll once again be walking the aisles at NCBA’s convention in Phoenix. I learned something last year at the convention in Nashville I think will prepare me for a better show this year and a better year beyond that.