The December Cattle on Feed report showed November placements 103.6% of last year and marketings 105.3% of one year ago. November had one more business day than 2021.

As 2021 winds to a close, cattle markets seem to finally be able to move out from under the specter of the pandemic impacts that began 18 months ago.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the midyear Cattle report on July 23, which provided a snapshot of the U.S. cattle inventory, as well as a glimpse into cow-calf producers’ intentions for retaining heifers.

Probably the most frequently asked question I am getting relates to how much the drought is adding to herd liquidation in 2021. It’s a difficult question for several reasons.

Most of the U.S. beef packing infrastructure was built in the 1980s. Cattle inventories in the decade of the 1980s averaged 108.3 million head, 15% greater than the 92.1 million head average of the past decade. The industry was characterized by excess capacity for many years as cattle inventories declined.

Much of 2020 has been preoccupied with daily and weekly slaughter numbers, carcass weights and boxed beef prices, along with monthly cattle-on-feed dynamics. The intertemporal volatility through the year adds to the challenge of assessing what, exactly, is the situation regarding the cattle cycle and longer-term herd dynamics.

Cattle supplies and movement through the supply chain have been headline topics in 2020. Disruptions caused many changes that impacted producer decisions. It is also important to occasionally take a longer-term view at cattle supplies. Recent reports released provide the most current update on the state of cattle supplies. 

Last Friday, the USDA released the July Cattle on Feed report. Feedlot placements in June were 1.8 million head, 102.1% of last year. June marketings were 1.97 million head, up 1.3% year over year.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its semiannual Cattle report on Jan. 31. The total number of cattle and calves on Jan. 1, 2020, was estimated at 94.4 million head, nearly 400,000 head lower than the previous year.