The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released July 10.
Milk production, prices
Milk production forecasts are raised for both 2026 and 2027. Based on the latest Milk Production report, cow inventories are also raised for both 2026 and 2027. Milk output per cow is reduced slightly for 2026 but unchanged for 2027.
- At 236.6 billion pounds, the 2026 milk production estimate was raised from last month’s report and would be up 4.9 billion from 2025’s total of 231.7 billion pounds.
For 2026, the price forecasts are lowered for nonfat dry milk (NDM), cheese and butter due to continuing strong growth in the milk supply. The whey price is unchanged from last month. As a result, the Class III milk price forecast is lowered to $16.15 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is also lowered to $18.40 cwt. The 2026 all-milk price is lowered 70 cents to $20 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2027, the USDA estimated milk production at 238.1 billion pounds, up 1.1 billion pounds from last month.
For 2027, the price forecasts are lowered for NDM, cheese and butter, while the price of whey is unchanged. As a result, the Class III milk price forecast is lowered to $17.05 per cwt, and the Class IV price forecast is also lowered to $17.40 cwt. The 2027 all-milk price forecast is lowered a $1.05 to $19.85 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2026, beef production is lowered due to a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year. The decrease in steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets an increase in cow slaughter. Dressed weights are also lowered in the second and third quarter.
For 2027, beef production is lowered, as decreased feedlot placements in 2026 and a slower pace of marketings reduce total steer and heifer slaughter.
Fed cattle prices are raised for the third quarter of 2026 based on strong prices during June but remain unchanged for the remainder of the year. Prices are increased slightly in 2027 on lower beef production. The 2025 average was forecast at $224.37 per cwt, while the 2026 average is now forecast at $251.10 per cwt, with highest prices in the second quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE report provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2026-27 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, greater exports and reduced ending stocks.
Corn production for 2026-27 is up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 183 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 50 million bushels on an increase in exports.
At $4.40 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged from the previous report and up a quarter from the 2024-25 average of $4.15 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2026-27 U.S. soybean price projections are unchanged this month.
Soybean production is projected at 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million on higher harvested area. Harvested area, projected at 84.4 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.7 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 53 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies for 2026-27 are raised 30 million bushels as higher production is partly offset by lower beginning stocks. Soybean crush remains unchanged for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 with offsetting changes in soybean meal demand, reflecting higher exports and lower domestic consumption.
The 2026-27 U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged at $11.40 per bushel, compared with $10.40 in 2025-26. The soybean meal price is also unchanged at $310 per short ton, and the soybean oil price is 70 cents per pound.
- Cottonseed: The 2026-27 U.S. cotton balance sheet forecasts higher production and ending stocks, with beginning stocks, consumption, imports and exports unchanged from last month.
U.S. all-cotton production is raised 400,000 bales to 13.7 million as planted area is estimated at 9.85 million acres based on the June Acreage report, up 2% from last month. Harvested area is also projected 2% higher at 7.54 million acres assuming a 10-year average abandonment rate for all regions. The national average yield is raised 6 pounds to 872 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting the increased area in the Southeast and Delta and lower area in the Southwest in the June Acreage report.
The 2025-26 season-average farm price forecast remains at 63 cents per pound reflecting recent strength in cotton futures. The projected season-average price for 2026-27 also remains at 73 cents per pound.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $247 per ton in May, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $195 per ton, and prices for other hay averaged $142 per ton.
