Declining beef and pork production may offset increased broiler production and lead to a decrease in total meat production in 2022.

A previous article considered what continued drought might force the industry to do in terms of additional herd liquidation. Another scenario is that drought across the country subsides and is not a significant factor in 2022.

Drought is expanding in the country. While much of the Intermountain West, the Southwest and parts of the Northern Plains have been in drought for much of the past 18 months or more, drought is expanding dramatically now in the Central and Southern plains.

Unexpectedly large December placements once again pushed feedlot inventories higher year over year on Jan. 1. Feedlot placements in December were 106.5% of last year, higher than the average trade expectation and above the trade estimate range.

Beef exports continued on a record pace in the latest data for November. Total beef exports were up 8.1% in November and are up 18.5% year over year for the first 11 months of the year.

The December Cattle on Feed report showed November placements 103.6% of last year and marketings 105.3% of one year ago. November had one more business day than 2021.

As 2021 winds to a close, cattle markets seem to finally be able to move out from under the specter of the pandemic impacts that began 18 months ago.

October brought significant rain across most of Oklahoma after a very dry September. The rains came in the form of a significant fall severe weather season.

In the latest livestock trade data, August beef exports were up 21.3% year over year, with year-to-date total beef exports also up 21% from 2020. Beef exports in the month of August were an all-time record for any month.

The September USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cattle on Feed report pegged Sept. 1 feedlot inventories at 11.234 million head, 98.6% of last year.