Compared to last month, minor adjustments are made to the 2025 and 2026 production forecasts, with no major changes to industry fundamentals. The changes center on updates from current slaughter data, reducing expected cow slaughter, temporal changes to fed cattle marketings and lifting anticipated carcass weights.

On May 11, the USDA announced that it will close U.S. ports of entry along the southern border, effective immediately, to imports of live cattle, horses and bison due to the continued and rapid northward spread of New World screwworm (NWS) in Mexico.

Overall, the 2025 beef production forecast is raised fractionally from last month’s projection by 15 million pounds to 26.7 billion pounds. Compared to last month’s forecast, fewer steers and heifers are expected to be processed this year, but that decline is more than offset by an adjusted outlook for cow and bull slaughter and for heavier carcass weights in each quarter.

Nineteen states including California, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Washington reduced milk production a combined 554 million pounds in February.

Total beef production outlook for 2025 is projected up 120 million pounds from last month’s forecast to 26.685 billion pounds. This is the result of heavier expected carcass weights in each quarter more than offsetting lower-than-expected overall cattle slaughter since last month.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Cattle report on Jan. 31. The total of all cattle and calves on Jan. 1, 2025, was estimated at 86.662 million head, about 0.5 million fewer than the previous year.

Although the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) commercial slaughter estimates for the month of December 2024 have not yet published, the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has published actual slaughter under federal inspection through the end of the year.

The recent discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) in cattle in the Mexican state of Chiapas has resulted in a restriction on the importation of cattle and bison originating from or transiting through Mexico, effective Nov. 22, 2024.