Mexican beef exports have grown rapidly in recent years. Total beef exports began increasing in 2009 and have increased from about 28,000 metric tons in 2008 to more than 161,000 metric tons in 2015, a nearly six-fold increase.

The economic basis for cow-calf production is growing grass and using cows to harvest the grass. Feed costs are typically the largest component of annual cow costs in cow-calf operations. Total feed cost includes grazing cost, harvested forage and purchased supplemental feed.

The latest Cattle on Feed report pegs March 1 feedlot inventories at 10.77 million head, 101 percent of year-ago levels. February marketings and placements were both up year over year partly because of an extra business day in February due to leap year.

We are now two years into herd expansion and that leads to questions of how much more herd expansion is ahead and, to a lesser degree, questions about how fast remaining herd expansion will occur.

The annual USDA Cattle report contains new numbers on cattle inventories and significant revisions to the 2015 numbers. It’s important to consider the revisions when interpreting the new numbers. In general, the report confirms, as expected, that cattle inventories in the U.S. grew in 2015.

Winter storm Jonas has dumped record snowfall on the East Coast, causing near total shutdown of several major cities and across a large region. Impacts from deep snow, power outages and coastal flooding will continue for several days.

Cattle markets in 2015 transitioned from what 2014 was to more like what 2016 will be. Beef production will be up 3 to 4 percent annually from 2015 levels, which was the lowest since 1993.

The contrast between the beginning and end of 2015 is stark. It has been a year of transition as the markets turned the corner from a long run of up-trending prices to the reality that growing cattle inventories and increasing beef production imply lower prices in the future. The idea that things will change is not a surprise, but how that change will happen is most always impossible to predict.

Total 2015 beef production in the U.S. is expected to decrease about 2.5 percent year over year from 2014 and would be the lowest annual beef production in the U.S since 1993.

U.S. beef imports were up 32.5 percent in the first seven months of 2015. This follows a beef import increase of 31 percent year over year in 2014.