ERS monthly retail beef prices (Choice and Fresh) have continued to decline year to date. The July retail Choice beef price was reported at $6.09 per pound, down 11 cents from the previous month and down approximately 28 cents per pound from July 2015.

During July, fed steer prices were quoted approximately 21 percent below the previous year and between 22 and 30 percent below July 2014 levels. Fed cattle prices experienced a strong correction during the last half of 2015, and prices have continued to trend lower through much of 2016.

The Choice/Select spread, which is the difference in value between the Choice beef cutout and Select beef cutout, provides indications of the underlying supply and demand fundamentals in the beef complex over time.

The figure shows 2017 red meat, poultry and dairy exports as a percentage of production – calculated from the USDA’s 2017 forecasts for red meat, poultry and dairy production and exports compared with 2016 forecasts.

Significant precipitation during the first week in May improved the pasture and crop outlook for the Southern Plains, southeastern U.S. and other U.S. areas in which drought conditions were beginning to appear – with the exception of the Southwest and Southern California. The May 3, 2016 U.S.