The year 2026 marks something of a small crossroads for Idaho as it heads into the latter half of the 2020s. The decade of unprecedented growth is climbing at a breakneck pace for the state.
Idaho was the second-fastest-growing state in the nation from 2010 to 2020, hitting 17.3% growth over the decade. This pattern continues to steam ahead, with Idaho being neck and neck with Florida for fastest-growing state from 2020 to 2024, at 8.3% growth. Put these figures together and Idaho has gone from 1.567 million in the 2010 U.S. Census to 2.002 million in the July 2024 estimate.
Now comes the hard part. Idaho is growing, but it may be too excessively in the same place, as far as agriculture is concerned. The influx remains heavily centered in Ada/Canyon counties and the suburbs around Boise. Four of the top five fastest-growing cities from 2000 to 2024 are in that region:
- Caldwell, 21.5% growth to 73,088 residents
- Kuna, 21% growth to 29,127
- Post Falls, 18.6% growth to 45,800
- Meridian, 18.6% growth to 139,740
- Nampa, 16.8% growth to 117,350 residents
And just FYI, all five of these cities were in the top 100 fastest-growing cities of the U.S. last year.
So why the heartburn over the urban-rural dynamic? Because that kind of growth in Idaho’s larger cities portends more power going away from Idaho ag. It means more growth in urban cities, in urban votes, in urban representation, in urban legislation and possibly in urban water resources and electricity.
Please understand. As I’ve written before, it’s a good sign to have growth, and more preferable than what other states are seeing in declining populations. Idaho’s economic engine is running strong, and that bodes well on a wide basis for all the state.
But growth, in spite of what economic development folks may say, doesn’t always pay for growth. We have to pony up to keep the investment that past Idaho communities and leaders and voters built in the past.
One of the biggest investments is in Idaho’s water infrastructure, which keeps the state’s homes, farms, ranches, crops, commodities and livestock vital and growing. Unfortunately, there are portions of the population and the legislature that came with this influx of growth but do not see the investments in these projects as worth continuing.
This isn’t just foolish, it’s also destructive. Look at what Idaho has built over decades of collaboration between surface water and groundwater users, over cases of appropriation battles and how the hard work has paid off with improved reservoirs, innovative cloud seeding and effective aquifer recharge.
Then compare that with what is unfolding in the Colorado River Basin, where seven states are unable or unwilling to maneuver any key agreement to satisfaction. That shortage will lead to judicial intervention, cut water deliveries and more people moving away from those seven states.
Idaho’s identity with agriculture is strong, but it is always at risk. The secret is out that the Gem State has a remarkable environment for clean living, affordable communities and a strong economy. But if our growing state can’t protect ag interests, it could put all three facets at peril.
