Jon Hauser

Message to ‘slow down’ getting through to U.S. milk producers

June 28, 2012

Just over 12 months ago, I reported Xcheque.com’s analysis of the delicate balance of supply and demand in the U.S. market. At that time, the milk price and margin available in the U.S. was at odds with the value of milk commodities in international markets. The conclusion that U.S. milk was undervalued has proved correct with prices rallying and a return to more sustainable margins for most of 2011. So how do things look one year later and what is the prognosis for the rest of 2012? Unfortunately, the current state of the market is an ugly sight and is only going to get worse if you believe that the futures market is a guide.

U.S. milk production climbs back above the line

September 21, 2011

Jon Hauser

I wrote earlier this year about the drivers of U.S. milk production and, in particular, the link between the dollar margin over feed cost and production growth trends (See “U.S. milk production: Shouting down the supply chain,” May 2nd issue, pg. 23). It seemed clear at the time that the sharp decline in seasonal production during the latter part of 2010 was due to a margin squeeze on dairy producers – feed prices were rising and milk prices falling.

U.S. milk production: Shouting down the supply chain

April 27, 2011

Jon Hauser

If you are into numbers, the trends in demand and supply are a fascinating topic, especially when you apply the concept to the dairy industry. The theory is simple – an increase in demand allows prices to rise, encouraging supply growth. As stocks and supply increase to the point of excess, prices fall, resulting in a contraction of supply and reset of the supply/demand balance. The reality is a long way from simple and that has certainly proved to be the case in our research on the U.S. dairy market.

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Jon Hauser

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Message to ‘slow down’ getting through to U.S. milk producers

U.S. milk production climbs back above the line

U.S. milk production: Shouting down the supply chain

Economic Update: HPAI returns to Texas, Utah

New World screwworm confirmed in southern Texas

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