California's dry, cold winter last year prevented hundreds of thousands of acres of alfalfa, oats and other forages from germinating, and many germinated fields failed for lack of water, according to a January report from University of California Cooperative Extension. Dry, dead grazing land led farmers to buy hay for the fall and winter, further decreasing supply and raising prices.

"It is doubtful we will see an oversupply of material on the market in 2014," wrote Wesco International Vice President Mike Hajny in a March article in Progressive Forage Grower. He predicted losses due to a dry winter, and state-by-state reports now show late-season losses from rain. 

Travis Teuton, a farmer in central Florida, told the Ocala Star Banner he hasn't been able to harvest hay for three weeks, because he hasn't had three dry days in a row. 

The Sept. 29 USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service State Crop Progress and Condition report (SCPC) for Florida showed 28 percent of fields had surplus moisture, which in the previous week was 6 percent more than last year. 

Texas A&M Agrilife Extension reports generally dry-to-good conditions across the state, but scattered areas in southeastern Texas are too wet to harvest. In some areas in the panhandle, the previous cut is sitting under 2 to 3 feet of regrowth because of rains.

Mississippi's hay harvest will be leaner than last year's, according to the Mississippi Business Journal. "Rains and insect pressure from armyworms have current hay production estimates for Mississippi at 1.38 million tons, their lowest since 2000," said John Riley, extension agricultural economist. Added pressures are a wet spring with colder weather, depleted soil nutrients and low hay reserves from winter 2013. The SCPC reports the hay harvest 99 percent complete by Oct. 5.

Rains in Utah over the past weeks have damaged much of the fourth cutting of hay, according to the state's SCPC. The fourth cutting was 54 percent complete, above the five-year average's 50 percent.

And on top of rain and drought losses, hay prices are set to increase this year because fewer acres were planted. High feed and food grain prices reduced hay production, according to The Missoulian. 

The good news? States not mentioned above have had dryer weather, with more successful harvests. 

Despite increased rain in Kansas, the fourth cutting of alfalfa hay was 79 percent complete, ahead of 72 percent in the five-year average, according the Kansas SCPC.

Colorado extension agent Marlin Eisenach told the Fort Morgan Times that despite rain and wind, the hay crop looks healthy. The fourth cutting was 25 percent completed as of Oct. 7. 

Snow and rain in Montana limited workable field days, but the second cutting of hay is 92 percent complete, on par with the five-year average. 

Idaho, on the other hand, is in trouble. Rain-damage estimates for the second cutting in south-central Idaho were 20 to 70 percent for the second cutting, 40 to 75 percent for the third cutting, and 30 percent for the fourth. In eastern Idaho, damage estimates were 25 to 50 percent for the first cutting and 45 to 95 percent in the third cutting. University of Idaho Extension estimates a minimum $87 million loss, which is 31 percent of total value to date in 2014.

The report goes on to say the estimate will probably be lower than actual losses, because later cuttings will be affected by standing water in fields, increased weeds and fungus-favoring hot, humid weather in August. A significant amount of hay was stacked but not covered, and received 3 to 6 inches of rain. Damage is expected in the top layer of uncovered stacks, and some in the bottom layer due to flooding. 

The USDA has designated eight counties in Idaho as primary natural disaster areas because of the August rains and storms, with 19 neighboring counties in Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming also qualifying for natural disaster assistance. Qualified farmers in those counties are eligible for low-interest emergency loans from the Farm Service Agency, according to a USDA press release. 

SCPC previous-year statistics are not available for the weeks ending Oct. 6 and Oct. 13, 2013, because of the government shutdown last year.  FG

—Summarized by Progressive Forage Grower staff from cited sources