On Aug. 9, a fire damaged Tyson Foods’ Holcomb, Kansas, beef processing plant, rendering it inoperable through 2019, according to the company. This plant was estimated to have a capacity equivalent to about 5% to 6% of fed cattle slaughtered weekly.

In July, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the midyear cattle report, which provided a snapshot of U.S. cattle inventory as well as a glimpse into cow and calf producers’ intentions for retaining heifers.

The lingering effects of inclement weather conditions earlier in the year and a greater proportion of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix have largely kept cattle weights below expectations from the previous month. Average cattle carcass weights appear to have bottomed in the week ending June 1, 2019, at 790 pounds.

The Aug. 9 fire that destroyed portions of the Tyson Foods beef plant in Holcomb, Kansas, left a lingering burn in other portions of the feeder and packing segments. 

The initial forecast for 2020 commercial beef production is expected to set a record of 27.5 billion pounds, surpassing by almost 1% what is expected to be a record level in 2019. Total cattle slaughter is expected to be lower than 2019, as lower cow slaughter more than offsets higher fed cattle slaughter.

The USDA continues to catch up on reports stalled by the shutdown and, as part of catching up, released the January Cattle on Feed report on Friday, Feb. 22. The report has lost a little bit of its normal timeliness, but still contains a few interesting nuggets.

With USDA data flowing again, the final numbers for 2018 will begin to emerge soon as well as current numbers for 2019. The annual Cattle report will be released after a one-month delay in late February.

The forecast for 2018 beef production is increased by 25 million pounds to 26.9 billion pounds. This minor adjustment is based on greater expected steer and heifer slaughter, which is partially offset by anticipated lighter steer and heifer carcass weights and lower expected cow slaughter in the fourth quarter.