The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised from the previous report based on higher milk cow inventories and robust milk per cow through the third quarter of 2025. Estimated at 231.4 billion pounds, it was raised 1,400 million pounds from September’s report.

Twenty states including Idaho, Texas and New York boosted milk production a combined 789 million pounds in September.

In dairy-related news this first week of November 2025: The USDA plans to release key production data in November, IDFA submits comments on global dairy trade barriers, a carcass composting bill passes in California, and Chobani partners with U.S. Soccer.

At the time of this writing, the government shutdown is now in its fourth week. While the shutdown has many USDA reports delayed and data unpublished, dairy insurance programs are available even if a prolonged shutdown could delay claim processing if indemnities are triggered.

Starting in late July and throughout August, weekly cattle slaughter slowed seasonally but to levels that were the lowest since 2015. Adjusting for one fewer slaughter days in 2025, August saw a 10% decline in cattle slaughter, the largest year-over-year decline for any month in 2025.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Agricultural Prices report Sept. 30, which includes feed costs and milk prices used to calculate the August Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program margins and indemnity payments. August’s margin was $11.52 per hundredweight (cwt) as a result of corn prices falling more than a quarter and milk prices rising a dime.

As the clock struck midnight and the calendar turned from September to October, the U.S. government officially shut down, with the Senate unable to strike any sort of budget compromise.