The USDA provided mixed news on numbers critical to dairy producers. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Ag Prices report, released Dec. 31, established November 2025 Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program calculations. While shrinking to the smallest margin of the year, no DMC indemnity payments were triggered for the month, extending those economic conditions to 21 months.
November numbers
The Ag Prices report showed prices for major dairy feedstuffs were mixed, with milk prices slightly lower (see Table 1).
November DMC at a glance
DMC program margin factors for November (compared to October) were as follows:
- Dairy alfalfa hay: $216 per ton, down $7
- Corn: $3.98 per bushel, up 5 cents
- Soybean meal: $330.87 per ton, up $30.19
- Total feed costs: $9.66 per hundredweight (cwt), up 18 cents
- Milk price: $19.70 per cwt, down 30 cents per cwt
- Margin above feed cost: $10.04 per cwt, down 48 cents
Milk prices mostly lower
Catching up on milk income, November prices posted declines in all major dairy states (Table 2) compared to a year earlier.
The November 2025 announced U.S. average milk price was $19.70 per cwt, down 30 cents from October. Only Illinois, Minnesota, New Mexico, South Dakota and Wisconsin posted small month-to-month increases, up 20 to 40 cents per cwt. Elsewhere, four states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Virginia – reported declines of $1 per cwt or more in November.
Compared to a year earlier, November 2025’s U.S. average milk price was down $4.50 per cwt, led by declines of $6 or more in Arizona, Colorado and Washington.
Calculating margins
The DMC feed cost for each month is calculated by summing three numbers: 1) the corn price per bushel times 1.0728; plus 2) the soybean meal price per ton times 0.00735; plus 3) the alfalfa hay price per ton times 0.0137.
With those feed cost factors and the U.S. average milk price, no indemnity payments were triggered for any producers under the DMC Tier I coverage level of $9.50 per cwt. That follows a 21-month trend with no margin below $9.50 per cwt, since February 2024.
Looking ahead
There are signs U.S. dairy producers participating in DMC will see small indemnity payments to end the year. As of Dec. 31, the December DMC margin was forecast at $8.83 per cwt, 67 cents below the $9.50 per cwt trigger level. December 2025 figures are scheduled for release on Jan. 30, 2026. See daily updated forecasts here.
For other dairy risk management details, check out Progressive Dairy’s Dairy risk management calendar: January 2026.
Also, read: Cow, milk increases evident in USDA November estimates
