The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed that this month’s 2026-27 U.S. corn outlook is for smaller supplies, greater exports and reduced ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are cut 125 million bushels to 2 billion, reflecting an increase in feed and residual use that is partly offset by a reduction in corn used for ethanol for 2025-26. Feed and residual use is raised 150 million bushels based on indicated disappearance in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Through the first three quarters of the marketing year, feed and residual use totaled just over 5.6 billion bushels, compared to about 4.8 billion during the same period a year ago. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 25 million bushels based on observed grain crush and ethanol production data to date. Corn production for 2026-27 is up fractionally based on updated planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 183 bushels per acre. Total use is raised 50 million bushels on an increase in exports. Exports are higher, reflecting expectations of continued global demand strength. With use rising and supply falling, ending stocks are down 170 million bushels to 1.8 billion. The season-average farm price (SAFP) received by producers is unchanged at $4.40 per bushel.
U.S. oilseed production for 2026-27 is projected at 131.6 million tons, up 1.2 million from last month, driven by higher output of soybeans, canola and cottonseed, partially offset by lower production of sunflower seeds and peanuts. Soybean production is projected at 4.475 billion bushels, up 40 million on higher harvested area. Harvested area, projected at 84.4 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is up 0.7 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 53 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies for 2026-27 are raised 30 million bushels as higher production is partly offset by lower beginning stocks. Soybean crush remains unchanged for both 2025-26 and 2026-27, with offsetting changes in soybean meal demand reflecting higher exports and lower domestic consumption. Soybean exports are raised 30 million bushels on increased supplies and stronger global demand. Higher supplies are offset by higher use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels for 2026-27.
The outlook for 2026-27 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced 22 million bushels on lower beginning stocks and production. Production is forecast at 1,536 million bushels, down 7 million from last month. This is the lowest U.S. wheat production since 1970-71. The all-wheat yield is 47.9 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushels from last month. Winter wheat production is lowered 39 million bushels to 990 million, almost entirely due to reductions in hard red winter and soft red winter. The initial 2026-27 survey-based production forecasts from the National Agricultural Statistics Service indicate other spring wheat is less than last year at 475 million bushels on lower harvested area, while durum is also lower at 71 million on reduced harvested area and yields. Projected 2026-27 ending stocks are reduced 22 million bushels to 722 million and are down 22% from last year. The projected 2026-27 SAFP is unchanged at $6 per bushel, compared to last year’s final SAFP of $5.06.
The total U.S. red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 is raised from the previous month, as higher poultry production more than offsets lower red meat production. Beef production is lowered due to a slower rate of steer and heifer slaughter through the end of the year. The decrease in steer and heifer slaughter more than offsets an increase in cow slaughter. Dressed weights are also lowered in the second and third quarters.
For 2027, beef production is lowered, as decreased feedlot placements in 2026 and a slower pace of marketings reduce total steer and heifer slaughter. Beef exports and imports are both lowered in the second quarter of 2026 based on recent trade data but are unchanged for the remainder of the year and for 2027. Cattle prices are raised for the third quarter of 2026 based on strong prices during June but remain unchanged for the remainder of the year. Prices are increased slightly in 2027 on lower beef production.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from July.
