The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Dec. 9.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2025 is unchanged from the previous month, based on the data in the most recent Milk Production report. Estimated at 231.4 billion pounds, it was unchanged from November’s report.
The butter price forecast for 2025 is raised slightly on prices reported through November. The cheese price forecast for 2025 is lowered on recent price weakness. The nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey price forecasts are unchanged for 2025. The Class III milk price forecast was reduced to $18.10 per hundredweight (cwt) while the Class IV milk price was raised to $17.40 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is lowered a nickel to $21 per cwt.
The milk production forecast for 2026 is lowered on reduced cow inventories more than offsetting a higher rate of growth in milk per cow. Estimated milk production is at 234.1 billion pounds.
For 2026, the cheese and butter price forecasts are lowered as price weakness in late 2025 is expected to carry into 2026. The 2026 whey price is raised on strong demand continuing into next year. The NDM price forecast is unchanged. The Class III milk price is lowered to $17.05 per cwt, and the Class IV milk price is reduced to $14.40 per cwt. The 2026 all-milk price forecast is lowered 50 cents to $18.75 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2025, beef production is raised on a faster rate of slaughter for both fed and non-fed cattle for the fourth quarter, as well as higher dressed weights. For 2026, beef production is raised, primarily on higher dressed weights.
Fed cattle price forecasts are lowered for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price data and the announcement of reduced slaughter plant capacity expected to occur in early 2026. The 2025 average is now forecast at $223.97 per cwt, with highest prices in the third quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and crop production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
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Corn: This month’s WASDE 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook called for greater exports and lower ending stocks.
- At $4 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged from the previous report and down 35 cents from the 2024-25 average of $4.35 per bushel.
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Soybeans: This month’s 2025-26 U.S. soybean supply, use and price projections are unchanged.
- The 2025-26 U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged at $10.50 per bushel, but up 55 cents from the average price of $9.95 per bushel in 2024-25.
- The projected soybean meal price was also unchanged at $300 per short ton, the same as the 2024-25 average of $300 per ton and $85 less than the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton.
- The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
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Cottonseed: This month’s 2025-26 U.S. cotton balance shows slightly higher production, a reduction in mill use and larger ending stocks compared to November.
- As a predictor of cottonseed availability, the all-cotton production is increased 1% to 14.3 million 480-pound bales as yields are raised for most states in the Southeast and Delta. As a result, the national average yield is 10 pounds higher at 929 pounds per acre. Mill use is reduced by 100,000 bales to 1.6 million, the lowest in almost 150 years.
- Based on conditions as of Dec. 1, yields are expected to average 929 pounds per harvested acre, up 10 pounds from the previous forecast and up 43 pounds from 2024. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.9 million 480-pound bales, up 1% from the previous forecast but down less than 1% from 2024. Pima cotton production is forecast at 378,000 bales, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 20% from 2024.
- The projected season average farm price is reduced to 60 cents per pound, a decline of 3 cents from last year and 31 cents since 2021-22.
