After a lengthy government shutdown, the USDA is catching up on numbers critical to dairy producers. The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Ag Prices report, released Dec. 15, recaps September and October 2025 Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program calculations. And while the numbers were updated, there’s little change in results: No DMC indemnity payments were triggered for either September or October, extending those economic conditions to 20 months.
September/October numbers
The Ag Prices report showed prices for major dairy feedstuffs were mixed, with milk prices slightly lower (see Table 1).
September DMC at a glance
DMC program margin factors for September (compared to August) were as follows:
- Dairy afalfa hay: $221 per ton, down $1
- Corn: $4 per bushel, up 4 cents
- Soybean meal: $301.05 per ton, up $16.69
- Total feed costs: $9.53 per cwt, up 15 cents
- Milk price: $20.40 per cwt, down 50 cents per cwt
- Margin above feed cost: $10.87 per cwt, down 65 cents
October DMC at a glance
DMC program margin factors for October (compared to September) were as follows:
- Dairy alfalfa hay: $223 per ton, up $2
- Corn: $3.93 per bushel, down 7 cents
- Soybean meal: $300.68 per ton, down 37 cents
- Total feed costs: $9.48 per cwt, down 5 cents
- Milk price: $20 per cwt, down 40 cents per cwt
- Margin above feed cost: $10.52 per cwt, down 55 cents
Milk prices lower
Catching up on milk income, October prices posted large declines in all major dairy states (Table 2) compared to a year earlier.
The September 2025 announced U.S. average milk price was $20.40 per cwt. That was followed by an October average price of $20 per cwt. Only one state, Idaho, posted a small month-to-month increase, up 50 cents per cwt. Elsewhere, 16 states reported declines of 50 cents per cwt or more in October.
Compared to a year earlier, October 2025’s U.S. average milk price was down $5.10 per cwt, led by declines of $6 or more in Colorado and Washington.
Calculating margins
The DMC feed cost for each month is calculated by summing three numbers: 1) the corn price per bushel times 1.0728; plus 2) the soybean meal price per ton times 0.00735; plus (3) the alfalfa hay price per ton times 0.0137.
With those feed cost factors and the U.S. average milk price, no indemnity payments were triggered for any producers under the DMC Tier I coverage level of $9.50 per cwt. That follows a 20-month trend with no margin below $9.50 per cwt, since February 2024.
Looking ahead
There are signs U.S. dairy producers participating in DMC will see small indemnity payments to end the year. The USDA returns to a more normal report schedule later this month. The DMC update will continue on Dec. 31, when November feed costs, milk prices and a potential DMC margin will be reported. Then, December 2025 figures are scheduled for release on Jan. 30, 2026.
As of Dec. 15, the November DMC margin was forecast at $9.54 per cwt, again above the $9.50 per cwt trigger level. However, the December margin forecast dips to $8.85 per cwt, which would trigger a participant payment. See daily updated forecasts here.
For other dairy risk management details, read Dairy risk management calendar: November 2025.
