Overall, the 2025 beef production forecast is raised fractionally from last month’s projection by 15 million pounds to 26.7 billion pounds. Compared to last month’s forecast, fewer steers and heifers are expected to be processed this year, but that decline is more than offset by an adjusted outlook for cow and bull slaughter and for heavier carcass weights in each quarter.

Total beef production outlook for 2025 is projected up 120 million pounds from last month’s forecast to 26.685 billion pounds. This is the result of heavier expected carcass weights in each quarter more than offsetting lower-than-expected overall cattle slaughter since last month.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Cattle report on Jan. 31. The total of all cattle and calves on Jan. 1, 2025, was estimated at 86.662 million head, about 0.5 million fewer than the previous year.

Although the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) commercial slaughter estimates for the month of December 2024 have not yet published, the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has published actual slaughter under federal inspection through the end of the year.

The recent discovery of New World screwworm (NWS) in cattle in the Mexican state of Chiapas has resulted in a restriction on the importation of cattle and bison originating from or transiting through Mexico, effective Nov. 22, 2024.

Earlier this year, it was expected that the number of cattle on feed would shrink year over year in the second half of 2024, based on smaller inventory levels at the beginning of the year, and that year-over-year higher calf prices would result in retention of heifers, limiting numbers in the feedlot.

The latest Cattle on Feed report, published by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimated the Sept. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.198 million head, about 1% above 11.127 million head in the same month last year.

The latest Cattle on Feed report, published by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), estimated the Aug. 1 feedlot inventory at 11.095 million head, less than 1% above 11.064 million head in the same month last year.

There was no USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) July Cattle report in 2024 providing an estimate of the cattle inventory on July 1. However, the NASS Cattle on Feed report breaks down the number of steers and heifers in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more on July 1.

In the first six months of 2024, the volume of federally inspected heifer and cow slaughter are down by 1% and 14%, respectively. Further, the percentage of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix in terms of the weekly average for January-June over the past 20 years, 2024 has declined year over year.