The 2019 fourth-quarter beef production forecast was raised by 100 million pounds from the previous month to nearly 7 billion pounds. This raised the forecast for annual production to 27.1 billion pounds.

The 2019 beef production forecast was raised by 88 million pounds from the previous month to 27 billion pounds. The increase was based on a faster-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter and greater expected cow slaughter.

The 2019 beef production forecast was reduced by 5 million pounds from the previous month but remains at a rounded 26.9 billion pounds. The reduction was based on a slower-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter that was partially offset by greater expected cow slaughter and slightly higher expected cattle dressed weights.

On Aug. 9, a fire damaged Tyson Foods’ Holcomb, Kansas, beef processing plant, rendering it inoperable through 2019, according to the company. This plant was estimated to have a capacity equivalent to about 5% to 6% of fed cattle slaughtered weekly.

In July, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the midyear cattle report, which provided a snapshot of U.S. cattle inventory as well as a glimpse into cow and calf producers’ intentions for retaining heifers.

The lingering effects of inclement weather conditions earlier in the year and a greater proportion of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix have largely kept cattle weights below expectations from the previous month. Average cattle carcass weights appear to have bottomed in the week ending June 1, 2019, at 790 pounds.

The 2019 beef production forecast was reduced marginally from the previous month to 27.2 billion pounds as expected fourth-quarter production more than offset a slight increase in expected second-quarter production.

The initial forecast for 2020 commercial beef production is expected to set a record of 27.5 billion pounds, surpassing by almost 1% what is expected to be a record level in 2019. Total cattle slaughter is expected to be lower than 2019, as lower cow slaughter more than offsets higher fed cattle slaughter.

The beef production forecast for 2019 was lowered slightly by 20 million pounds from the previous month’s forecast to 27.3 billion pounds. This adjustment is based on lower expected carcass weights partly offset by a greater anticipated number of cows to be slaughtered this year.