After two years of liquidation due to pressure from drought conditions, the industry is headed into shorter beef supplies over the next three to four years, CattleFax analyst Kevin Good told attendees at the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) Cattle Industry Convention and Tradeshow in Nashville, Tennessee. “The U.S. beef cattle herd is undergoing liquidation. Beef cow slaughter is up 10 percent. There are less replacement heifers and more heifers going to the feedlot.”

The federally inspected slaughter for June was strong, exceeding the three previous years. More heifers and cows were in the slaughter mix in June, causing the average carcass weight to drop below the previous month’s expectations.

As reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor on May 4, 2021, 66% of the country was experiencing some level of drought, compared to just 31% the same week last year (see Figure 1).

Preliminary March 2021 federally inspected slaughter volume was up by 75,000 head from a year ago, totaling 2.95 million head, due to one extra slaughter day relative to March 2020.

The severe winter event in mid-February that dipped as far south as Texas disrupted packing plant operations, further-processing facilities and delivery of cattle to plants.

U.S. beef exports totaled 2,566.7 million pounds in 2020, down 2.3% from the previous year but still the third largest annual beef export total.

In 2020, the U.S. exported $7.6 billion in beef and variety meat products (down 6% from 2019); variety meat exports to all partners accounted for 11.8% of that value, down from 12.4% in 2019.

For the final quarter of 2020, beef production was lowered 80 million pounds on fewer-than-expected cattle slaughtered in December. This decline was particularly driven by fewer steers and heifers in the slaughter mix. As a result, 2020 beef production is forecast at 27.2 billion pounds, almost unchanged from 2019 production levels.

For the final quarter of 2020, beef production was raised 15 million pounds on greater expected non-fed cattle slaughter that was partially offset by lower average cattle carcass weights. As a result, 2020 beef production is forecast at 27.2 billion pounds.

U.S. beef trade is stabilizing as the ripple effects of the initial COVID-19 disruptions continue to fade. The latest beef trade data for November shows that monthly exports were up 13.2% year over year.