In July, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the midyear cattle report, which provided a snapshot of U.S. cattle inventory as well as a glimpse into cow and calf producers’ intentions for retaining heifers.

Total cattle imports in July were down 4.1%, with year-to-date total cattle imports up 14.7% year over year for the January through July period. Cattle imports in 2018 totaled 1.9 million head, including 66.8% Mexican cattle and 33.2% from Canada.

The lingering effects of inclement weather conditions earlier in the year and a greater proportion of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix have largely kept cattle weights below expectations from the previous month. Average cattle carcass weights appear to have bottomed in the week ending June 1, 2019, at 790 pounds.

The 2019 beef production forecast was reduced marginally from the previous month to 27.2 billion pounds as expected fourth-quarter production more than offset a slight increase in expected second-quarter production.

May exports of U.S. pork and beef were steady with last year’s strong volumes and increased year-over-year in value, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

The past year has been marked by several trade disputes between the U.S. and key trade partners. According to an online poll, producers consider China the most vital U.S. trade partner.

The initial forecast for 2020 commercial beef production is expected to set a record of 27.5 billion pounds, surpassing by almost 1% what is expected to be a record level in 2019. Total cattle slaughter is expected to be lower than 2019, as lower cow slaughter more than offsets higher fed cattle slaughter.

The beef production forecast for 2019 was lowered slightly by 20 million pounds from the previous month’s forecast to 27.3 billion pounds. This adjustment is based on lower expected carcass weights partly offset by a greater anticipated number of cows to be slaughtered this year.

Last week, China announced a retaliatory tariff increase on a revised target list of $60 billion worth of U.S. products in response to President Donald Trump’s tariff hike to 25 percent on $200 billion in Chinese goods.