In the first quarter of 2022, federally inspected (FI) nonfed cattle slaughter reached volumes not seen since the mid-1980s, based on USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) estimated and actual weekly slaughter data through the week ending April 2, 2022.

Beef production in 2021 is expected to total 27.95 billion pounds, up 55 million pounds from the previous month’s forecast. This increase is driven by a more rapid pace of cow and bull slaughter as well as by heavier cattle dressed weights.

Unexpectedly large December placements once again pushed feedlot inventories higher year over year on Jan. 1. Feedlot placements in December were 106.5% of last year, higher than the average trade expectation and above the trade estimate range.

In November, slaughter was higher year-over-year. While the increase in total cattle slaughter can be attributed to the additional slaughter day in November 2021 relative to a year prior, the average pace of fed cattle slaughter was higher on a per-weekday basis, with Saturday slaughter averaging lower.

The December Cattle on Feed report showed November placements 103.6% of last year and marketings 105.3% of one year ago. November had one more business day than 2021.

Based on the latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) federally inspected Livestock Slaughter report, the inferred (federally inspected production/federally inspected head slaughtered) carcass weight for September is 827.1 pounds, while the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) weekly actual and estimated federally inspected Livestock Slaughter reports showed that the inferred weight for October was 831.8 pounds, about 4.7 pounds heavier month-over-month.

Total commercial beef production in 2021 was raised to 27.832 billion pounds from last month on anticipated heavier carcass weights and higher cow slaughter.

Slaughter remains higher year-over-year. Preliminary estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter for August was up 3.1% from a year ago. Notably, the weekly estimated FI cow slaughter through Aug. 28 was up 13% year-over-year.