Here’s Progressive Dairy’s monthly review of the numbers to provide some additional transparency to your milk check.

Reductions in cow numbers and weaker average milk output per cow contributed to a decline in U.S. and major state milk production in July, the first year-over-year decline since June 2021-22.

Despite a better outlook for milk prices, corn and soybean meal price projections were also raised.

Despite weakening milk prices this summer, U.S. average prices for replacement cows moved higher, while strong beef prices continued to push market cow prices to an eight-year high.

DMC indemnity payments will surpass income margins for many dairy producers.

Those looking for bright spots in this year’s dairy outlook have found their search increasingly challenging.

Here’s an update on risk management tools available through the USDA and/or USDA’s Risk Management Agency (RMA), as well as other information impacting your milk check.

The preliminary estimate of overall June milk production compared to a year earlier was unchanged to slightly lower in the U.S., and up just 0.2% in the major dairy states, the fourth straight month output was up less than 1% from a year ago.

Since January, slaughter data has indicated a 12% decline in beef cow slaughter. This is likely a combination of improving pasture conditions, sufficient reductions in animal units per acre on poorer pastures and the prospect of improved profitability from selling calves.