The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Dec. 10.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2024 is raised from last month on higher milk cow numbers. Milk production in 2025 is also raised based on more expected milk cows, partially offset by slower growth in milk per cow.
- At 226.3 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was raised 300 million pounds from last month’s report and would be 100 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.4 billion pounds.
For 2024, the cheese and butter price forecasts are reduced, nonfat dry milk (NDM) is unchanged, and whey is higher, all based on recent prices. As a result, the Class III milk price is now forecast at $18.90 per hundredweight (cwt) as the lower cheese price more than offsets higher whey, and the Class IV price is projected at $20.75 per cwt. The all-milk price forecast is lowered a dime to $22.65 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 228 billion pounds, raised 300 million pounds from last month’s report but 1.7 billion pounds more than 2024’s revised forecast.
The lower prices for cheese and butter are expected to continue into projected forecasts for 2025. The price forecast in 2025 for NDM and whey are increased on higher-than-previously expected demand. As a result, next year’s Class III milk price is forecast at $18.80 per cwt, and the Class IV price is projected at $20.40 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is lowered 35 cents to $22.55 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2024, the beef production forecast is raised on higher steer and heifer slaughter, as well as heavier dressed weights.
Looking ahead to 2025, beef production is reduced due to the current restrictions on cattle imports from Mexico. The restrictions would result in lower feedlot placements throughout the year and lower beef production, particularly in the second half of 2025.
For 2024, cattle price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is unchanged, while the forecast for 2025 is raised on tighter expected cattle and beef supplies. The fed cattle price forecast for 2024 was estimated at $186.68 per cwt, with prices averaging $188 per cwt in the fourth quarter. The 2023 average was $175.54 per cwt.
October market cow (beef and dairy cow prices combined) averaged $128 per cwt, down from $136 per cwt in September.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for greater corn used for ethanol, larger exports and lower ending stocks.
Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. These data imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017.
At $4.10 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged from the November forecast and is down 45 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.55 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections are unchanged.
Soybean oil production is raised from last month on a higher extraction rate. With higher soybean oil supplies and strong export commitments to date, exports are raised 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, down 60 cents from last month and down $2.20 from the average price of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were also reduced $20 at $300 per short ton, down about $85 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $152 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, cotton production is raised to 14.3 million 480-pound bales, up less than 1% from last month’s forecast but up 18% from 2023.
Based on conditions as of Dec. 1, yields are expected to average 792 pounds per harvested acre, up 3 pounds from the previous forecast and down 107 pounds from 2023.
As a result, USDA’s December Crop Production report adjusted the cottonseed harvest to 4.352 million tons, down from last month’s estimate but up about 19% from 2023. October U.S. cottonseed prices averaged $223 per ton, down $6 from September and $10 per ton less than October 2023.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $236 per ton in October, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $173 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $147 per ton.
