The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Sept. 12.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised on higher cow inventories and a faster rate of growth in milk output per cow, based on the latest Milk Production report. Milk production is also raised for 2026. Higher cow inventories and productivity rates are expected to carry into next year. Estimated at 230 billion pounds, it was raised 800 million pounds from last month’s report.
The price forecasts for 2025 cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) are lowered for 2025 based on recent price declines and increased milk supplies. The whey price is unchanged from the previous month. The Class III milk price forecast is lowered to $18.20 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is lowered to $18.15 per cwt based on lower dairy product prices. The 2025 all-milk price is lowered 65 cents to $21.35 per cwt.
Milk production in 2026 is forecast to increase from 2025, driven by an expanding milk cow herd and slightly higher milk per cow. Estimated milk production is at 231.3 billion pounds.
For 2026, the price forecasts for cheese, butter, NDM and whey are all reduced on downward pressure from increased milk production. The Class III milk price forecast is lowered from last month to $17.40 per cwt, and the Class IV price is lowered to $17.25 per cwt due to lower product prices. The 2026 all-milk price forecast is lowered $1.50 to $20.40 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2025, beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower cow slaughter for the third and fourth quarters. For 2026, beef production is raised slightly, with higher fed cattle slaughter more than offsetting lower bull slaughter.
Fed cattle price forecasts in 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into 2026. The 2025 average is now forecast at $228.56 per cwt, with highest prices in the fourth quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and crop production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook called for greater supplies, larger exports and a slight reduction in ending stocks.
Corn production for 2025-26 is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 72 million from last month and up 13% from 2024. A 2.1-bushel reduction in yield to 186.7 bushels per acre is more than offset by a 1.3 million-acre increase in harvested area to 90 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936. Furthermore, this would be the highest grain production on record for the U.S.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average a record-high 186.7 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from the previous forecast but up 7.4 bushels from last year. Total planted area, at 98.7 million acres, is up 2% from the previous estimate and up 9% from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 90 million acres, up 2% from the previous forecast and up 9% from the previous year.
At $3.90 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged from last month and down 45 cents from the 2024-25 average of $4.35 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2025-26 U.S. soybean outlook includes higher production, higher crush, lower exports and higher ending stocks compared to last month.
Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, up less than 1% from the previous forecast but down 2% from 2024. Production is up slightly with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.2 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre is down marginally from last month. The crush forecast is raised 15 million bushels driven by stronger soybean meal exports.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average a record-high 53.5 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from the previous forecast but up 2.8 bushels from 2024. Total planted area, at 81.1 million acres, is up less than 1% from the previous estimate but down 7% from the previous year. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is forecast at 80.3 million acres, up less than 1% from the previous forecast but down 7% from 2024.
The 2025-26 U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is at $10 per bushel but up 5 cents from the average price of $9.95 per bushel in 2024-25. Projected soybean meal prices were unchanged at $280 per short ton, down about $20 from the 2024-25 average of $300 per ton and $105 less than the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, the all-cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales and down 8% from 2024.
Based on conditions as of Sept. 1, yields are expected to average 861 pounds per harvested acre, down 1 pound from the previous forecast and down 25 pounds from 2024. Upland cotton production is forecast at 12.9 million 480-pound bales, up 1% from the previous forecast but down 7% from 2024. All-cotton planted area totaled 9.3 million acres, up less than 1% from the previous forecast but down 17% from 2024. All-cotton area harvested is forecast at 7.37 million acres, up less than 1% from the previous forecast but down 6% from 2024.
The projected season-average upland price for 2025-26 remains at 64 cents per pound.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $245 per ton in July, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $173 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $144 per ton.
