The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released Aug. 12.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised from last month. The cow inventories are raised for both years based on the most recent data in the NASS Milk Production report. The growth in milk output per cow is also increased for 2025 and 2026. Estimated at 229.2 billion pounds, it was raised 900 million pounds from last month’s report.
The price forecast for 2025 butter is lowered from the previous month based on recent price weakness. The 2025 price forecasts for cheese and whey are unchanged, while nonfat dry milk (NDM) is raised. The Class III milk price forecast is unchanged at $18.50 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is lowered to $18.95 per cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is unchanged at $22 per cwt.
Milk production in 2026 is forecast to increase from 2025, driven by an expanding milk cow herd and slightly higher milk per cow. Estimated milk production is at 230.4 billion pounds.
For 2026, the price forecasts for butter and NDM are raised based on firm demand from domestic and international markets. Cheese and whey prices are unchanged from last month. As a result, the Class III milk price forecast is unchanged from last month at $17.85 per cwt, and the Class IV price is increased to $18.85 per cwt. The 2026 all-milk price forecast is raised to $21.90 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2025, beef production is lowered on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. For 2026, beef production is also lowered due to reduced expected placements in the second half of 2025, as well as reduced cow slaughter in 2026.
Fed cattle price forecasts in 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into 2026. The 2025 average is now forecast at $227.06 per cwt, with highest prices in the fourth quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook called for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks.
The corn production forecast for 2025-26 is at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1 billion from last month and up 13% from 2024. If realized, it would be the highest production for grain on record for the U.S. with a 1.9 million-acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-24.
Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, the yield is forecast at a record-high 188.8 bushels per acre, up 9.5 bushels from last year’s 179.3 bushels. Total planted area, at 97.3 million acres, is up 2% from the previous estimate and up 7% from the previous year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 88.7 million acres, up 2% from the previous forecast and up 7% from the previous year.
At $3.90 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers is lowered from last month and down 45 cents from the 2024-25 average of $4.35 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2025-26 U.S. soybean outlook includes lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks.
Soybean production for 2025-26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million bushels on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month.
Based on conditions as of Aug. 1, yields are expected to average a record-high 53.6 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 3% from the previous forecast and down 7% from 2024.
The 2025-26 U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged at $10.10 per bushel, but up 15 cents from the average price of $9.95 per bushel in 2024-25. Projected soybean meal prices were lowered $10 to $280 per short ton, down about $20 from the 2024-25 average of $300 per ton and $105 less than the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton. U.S. soybean crush for 2025-26 is unchanged at 2.54 billion, supported by higher demand for soybean oil for biofuel.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, the all-cotton production is forecast at 13.2 million 480-pound bales, almost 1.4 million bales below the July forecast and down 8% from 2024.
Planted area is lowered 8% to 9.3 million acres based on the NASS August Crop Production report. Harvested area is reduced 15% to 7.4 million acres as dryness in the Southwest raises the expected national abandonment rate from 14% to 21%. The national average yield for 2025-26 is raised over 6% to 862 pounds per harvested acre as higher abandonment in the Southwest results in the harvest of fewer lower-yielding dryland acres. The projected season-average price for 2025-26 is raised 2 cents this month to 64 cents per pound.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $244 per ton in June, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $177 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $141 per ton.
