Due to the government shutdown, the USDA resumed its monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released on Nov. 14.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2025 is raised from the previous report. Higher milk cow inventories and robust milk per cow through the third quarter of 2025 were reported in the recent Milk Production report. Estimated at 231.4 billion pounds, it was raised 1,400 million pounds from September’s report.
The butter price forecast for 2025 is reduced as increased supplies of milkfat have resulted in sharply lower prices for the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Cheese and nonfat dry milk (NDM) prices are also lowered for 2025 as increased milk supplies put downward pressure on dairy product prices. The whey price forecast is raised on strong demand. The Class III milk price forecast was reduced to $18.15 per cwt as lower cheese prices more than offset higher whey prices. The Class IV milk price was also reduced to $17.35 cwt based on lower butter and NDM prices. The 2025 all-milk price is lowered 30 cents, $21.05 per cwt.
The milk production forecast for 2026 is also raised, as the higher inventories and increased productivity rates are expected to carry into next year. Estimated milk production is at 234.3 billion pounds.
For 2026, the price forecasts for butter, cheese and NDM prices are lowered on increased milk supplies. The whey price forecast is raised, as strong demand is expected to continue into 2026. The Class III milk price is raised to $17.65 per cwt with higher whey prices more than offsetting the declines in cheese prices. The Class IV milk price is reduced to $14.50 cwt due to lower butter and NDM prices. The 2026 all-milk price forecast is lowered $1.15 to $19.25 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2025, beef production is lowered, as reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower weights are partially offset by higher expected cow and bull slaughter. For 2026, beef production is lowered on reduced steer and heifer slaughter, with the slower rate of fed cattle marketings expected to carry into the first half of 2026.
Fed cattle price forecasts are reduced for the fourth quarter of 2025 based on recent prices, with reduced cattle price forecasts carrying into 2026. The 2025 average is now forecast at $225.97 per cwt, with highest prices in the third quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE and Crop Production reports provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook called for increases in supply, exports and ending stocks.
Corn production for 2025-26 grain is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a .07-bushel reduction in yield to 186 bushels per acre and less than 1% from the previous forecast. However, corn production is up 12% from 2024.
Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields are expected to average a record-high 186 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushel from the previous forecast but up 6.7 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 90 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but up 8% from the previous year. If realized, this would be the highest grain production on record for the U.S.
At $4 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers is up a dime from the previous report and down 35 cents from the 2024-25 average of $4.35 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2025-26 U.S. soybean outlook called for lower soybean production.
Soybean production for beans is projected at 4.25 billion bushels, which is down 48 million on lower yields, down 1% from the previous forecast and down 3% from 2024. Soybean supplies are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report and reduced production.
Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields are expected to average a record-high 53 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushel from the previous forecast but up 2.3 bushels from 2024. Area harvested for beans in the U.S. is forecast at 80.3 million acres, unchanged from the previous forecast but down 7% from 2024.
The 2025-26 U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is raised 50 cents to $10.50 per bushel but up 55 cents from the average price of $9.95 per bushel in 2024-25. The projected soybean meal price was raised $20 to $300 per short ton, the same as the 2024-25 average of $300 per ton and $85 less than the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton. The soybean oil price is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, the all-cotton production is forecast at 14.1 million 480-pound bales and up 7% from the previous forecast but down 2% from 2024.
Based on conditions as of Nov. 1, yields are expected to average 919 pounds per harvested acre, up 58 pounds from the previous forecast and up 33 pounds from 2024. Upland cotton production is forecast at 13.7 million 480-pound bales, up 6% from the previous forecast but down 1% from 2024. Pima cotton production is forecast at 380,000 bales, up 23% from the previous forecast but down 19% from 2024.
The projected season-average upland price for 2025-26 is lowered to 62 cents per pound.
