In the 1980s, there was a popular song on the radio with the title "Should I Stay, or Should I Go." A lot of producers today are asking themselves a form of that same question – should I stay the course and keep my cattle, hoping consumer demand and beef prices rise soon? Or, should I sell off a good share so I don’t incur the expense of feeding and maintaining excess numbers, not knowing when this crisis might end?

President Donald Trump announced on May 6 he is urging the Department of Justice to probe further into packing companies and concerns about prices paid for beef and pork during the novel coronavirus outbreak.

In a webinar hosted by the University of Nevada – Reno on May 5, Don Close, senior animal protein analyst at Rabobank and Ty Lawrence, professor of animal science at West Texas A&M University, discussed the present pandemic and what they predict is coming down the pipeline for the beef industry. 

COVID-19 continues to sweep through packing plant workers, leading to severe disruptions in beef processing. Estimated cattle slaughter for the week ending May 2 was 425,000 head, down 38% year over year.

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A report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released May 1 says 4,913 cases and 20 deaths have occurred among some 130,578 workers at 115 meat and poultry processing facilities in 19 states. 

Estimating the total economic effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and the beef industry requires a number of assumptions based on imperfect information. As a result, any economic impact forecast has a wide confidence interval which can only narrow as the pandemic abates and post-quarantine economic data become available.