With 315 filings, farm bankruptcies were up 46% from 2024. Declining farm receipts and rising expenses, primarily in crop markets, led to an increase in the number of U.S. farms filing for Chapter 12 bankruptcy in 2025.

Looking ahead, current Federal Reserve forecasts project only one more 0.25% rate cut in 2026 and a final 0.25% cut in 2027. In contrast, CME fed fund futures anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, with the first likely at the March or April FOMC meeting.

U.S. commercial dairy farms of nearly every size are expected to post positive margins in 2026, but the link between increased herd size and profitability is sharper than ever.

As 2025 progresses, dairy markets remain soft with somewhat mixed – though more bearish than bullish – signals. That said, prices and IOFC have, thus far, held up better than many expected. The scale and duration of current market pressures, however, remains uncertain.

With 216 filings, farm bankruptcies were up 55% from 2023. Declining farm receipts, primarily in crop markets, led to an increase in the number of U.S. farms filing for Chapter 12 bankruptcy in 2024.