The January Feed Outlook report shows this month’s 2024-25 U.S. coarse grains outlook is for reduced supplies, as a decrease in expected corn output more than offsets gains in sorghum production. A slight bump to Sept. 1 corn stocks does little to offset the cut to production – stemming from slashed yields. This reduction is expected to impact feed and residual corn use along with export potential. However, with supply falling more than use, corn stocks are revised down this month. Higher harvested sorghum acreage and yields boost production expectations and, consequently, use. Sorghum supply and use changes are mostly offsetting, leaving ending stocks relatively unchanged from last month.
Corn yields are reduced for 2024-25
On Jan. 10, 2025, the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its Crop Production 2024 Summary report and the latest Grain Stocks report, with inventory data through Dec. 1, 2024. Based on data from the NASS reports, the January 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report projects total corn supplies for 2024-25 at 16,655 million bushels – 273 million bushels lower than the December 2024 projection. The change from the December WASDE report is primarily due to changes in the outlook for production, minimally offset by a 2.9-million-bushel upward adjustment to Sept. 1, 2024, corn stocks.
The 2024-25 U.S. corn production estimate is 276 million bushels lower this month at 14,867 million. A 2% decrease in the yield projection to 179.3 bushels per acre more than offsets a slight bump to the harvested area estimate, now estimated at 82.9 million acres. With the 2024-25 U.S. corn import forecast unchanged this month at 25 million bushels, the aforementioned change to beginning stocks constitutes the remainder of the impact on overall supplies.
Reduced U.S. corn production lowers global corn production
Global coarse grains production for 2024-25 is projected 4.8 million tons lower this month to 1,494.3 million tons, mostly due to a reduction in U.S. coarse grains projected output. A lower U.S. corn output is slightly offset by a higher U.S. sorghum output. Foreign coarse grain output (global minus U.S. output) is projected up 1.6 million tons, reflecting an increase in corn output that is partially offset by reduced sorghum, rye, oats and barley projections.
This month, there are no reductions to 2024-25 foreign corn output prospects. Rather, corn production estimates are raised for China, Russia and Ghana – representing a 3.5-million-ton increase. China is expected to account for the largest portion of this increase. Considering the latest Chinese National Bureau of Statistics data, China’s 2024-25 corn production is revised up from last month on a 0.9% increase in projected yields and a marginal increase in area (up 0.1%). China’s corn output has been steadily rising four years in a row (on a combination of larger area and higher yields) and is projected to be 2.1% higher (up 6.1 million tons) than a year ago for 2024-25.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from January.
