The July Feed Outlook report shows record-high U.S. corn production is projected for the 2025-26 marketing year, based on the season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast of the year and updated area estimates from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service. A near 2 million-acre increase in harvested area (to 88.7 million) combines with a 7.8 bushel-per-acre rise in yields (now 188.8 bushels per acre) to support an updated corn production forecast of 16.7 billion bushels. Taking into account adjustments in 2024-25 use (and, ultimately, reduced old-crop carryout), new-crop supplies are elevated to more than 18 billion bushels. Use categories are revised higher on the basis of expanded supplies – with feed and residual raised 250 million bushels, ethanol use up 100 million bushels and exports raised 200 million bushels. Ending stocks absorb the balance of the supply increase and are raised by 457 million bushels, putting downward pressure on the season average farm price – lowered 30 cents this month to $3.90 per bushel.
The U.S. 2025-26 corn crop was raised by more than a billion bushels this month to a new record high of 16.7 billion bushels. Area and yield gains contribute to the expanded harvest, with the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service’s (NASS) first survey-based corn production forecast of the season revealing 7% gains in both planted and harvested area and a more than 5% increase, year to year, for yields. The August corn production forecast is NASS’s first-of-the-season forecast and reflects data collected via operator reported survey, remote sensing in the Corn Belt and a review of Farm Service Agency-certified acres. Nationally, all major corn-producing U.S. states report elevated area harvested for the 2025-26 crop. Just four minor corn-producing states are projected to reduce area harvested, resulting in a net 5.8 million-acre year-to-year increase for the U.S.
Growing conditions for new-crop corn have generally been very favorable. As of the week ending Aug. 10, farmers reported that 72% of their corn crop was in “good-to-excellent” condition, as compared to 67% for the same period a year prior. The 2025-26 crop is rated more highly than the previous five crops for the same period. The percent of corn rated good to excellent in the top five corn-producing states – Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and Indiana – is on average 2.4% higher than the same time a year ago. The percent rated good to excellent in the leading corn-producing state, Iowa, is fully 9 points higher as compared to the same time a year ago. Good-to-excellent ratings in Nebraska and Minnesota are 7% and 16% higher.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from August.
