A new push by President Donald Trump to import beef from Argentina, on the heels of a controversial deal to send $20 billion in aid to that country, has raised serious concerns among U.S. beef producers.
The National Cattlemen's Beef Association (NCBA), the U.S. Cattlemen's Association, and the Kansas Livestock Association (KLA) were just a few of the ranching and farming groups critical of the idea in the days after Trump said a deal was in the works.
“This plan only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” NCBA CEO Colin Woodall said on Oct. 20. “Additionally, Argentina has a deeply unbalanced trade relationship with the U.S. In the past five years, Argentina has sold more than 801 million dollars of beef into the U.S. market. By comparison, the U.S. has sold just over 7 million dollars worth of American beef to Argentina. Argentina also has a history of foot-and-mouth disease, which, if brought to the United States, could decimate our domestic livestock production.
“Although beef prices have increased, consumer demand for beef remains strong because of the work American cattle producers have done to improve the quality and safety of U.S. beef. We call on President Trump and members of Congress to let the market work rather than intervening in ways that do nothing but harm rural America.”
But Trump responded sharply on Oct. 22, with a Truth Social post in which he claimed ranchers "don't understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% tariff on Brazil."
"If it weren't for me, they would be doing just as they’ve done for the past 20 years — Terrible! It would be nice if they would understand that, but they also have to get their prices down, because the consumer is a very big factor in my thinking, also!"
His lobbying applied significant pressure on cattle futures after the social media post. Futures prices on the CME index dropped 600 points Wednesday morning, according to Cassandra Fish, in her daily newsletter.
"There are multiple rumors swirling. One of the policy rumors is that the U.S. will import more Argentinian beef. All analysts are in agreement that increasing beef imports from Argentina, which consist of frozen 90s, will not materially impact beef prices whatsoever. Not to mention that the U.S. has lost access to China for soybeans, pork and beef exports and China has turned to South America, specifically to Argentina for soybeans and beef ... There are risk management tools and plenty of hard statistical data to analyze to support thoughtful decision making. Outside events have proved to have a huge impact on the cattle market in the past and no one can outguess this one."
Trump initially announced a plan encouraging more imported beef from Argentina. Trump says more Argentina beef would help lower beef prices for American consumers and aid a flailing economy in Argentina.
“We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef that’s going to bring the price down,” Trump said Oct. 16 in an Oval Office event. “That would be one product that we would say is a little bit higher than we want it … and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something, we worked our magic.”
While details are still unknown, the push for Argentinian beef came days after Trump met with Argentina’s President Javier Milei for various trade negotiations. Trump’s administration provided $20 billion in provisional currency loans to Argentina as that nation wrestles with its own economic turmoil.
But the announcement was not well received in the beef industry, and even led to a drop in prices on Friday and more uncertainty going into a new week.
“Cattle futures were strong last week up until Friday,” said Joseph Vasseur of CattleFax. “President Trump commented on Thursday afternoon that beef prices ‘will be coming down pretty soon,’ and what followed was strong negative moves in live cattle and feeder cattle futures. Overall on the week, live cattle were almost 2 dollars firmer, while feeders closed over 3 dollars lower.”
Trump’s plan resulted in a rare rebuke from the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA). In a statement Monday, the NCBA said “rewarding Argentina with this expanded access to the U.S. market harms American cattlemen and women, while also interfering with the free market.”
The U.S. Cattlemen’s Association (USCA) also weighed in and said several dynamics in markets have led to the smallest supply of cattle in the U.S. in decades.
“Most U.S. cattle producers operate with little or no direct government subsidy, relying on market signals and resilience rather than handouts,” USCA said in a statement. “USCA cautions that high-profile government comments can trigger immediate volatility in live and feeder cattle markets."
The markets, said USCA President Justin Tupper, should be the place to work those dynamics – not government.
“When policymakers hint at intervention or suggest quick fixes, they can shake the market’s foundation and directly impact the livelihoods of ranchers who depend on stable, transparent pricing,” Tupper explained. “Sudden price moves make it harder for independent producers to plan, invest and keep their operations running.”
David P. Anderson, a cattle economist at Texas A&M University, agreed that the price relief coming to U.S. consumers would be minimal from such a push.
“Even if we bought more beef from Argentina, it’s just not going to make much more difference in price,” he said. “We already import from Argentina; this year about 2.1 percent of our beef imports come from them. To put that in perspective, we've imported from Argentina in a year what we’ve imported from Canada each month. It’s a relatively small number, and not likely to have any effect on U.S. beef prices.”
Anderson added that beef is a huge commodity in Argentina, and its consumers don’t want to lose their homegrown supply if their economy is already down.
“Traditionally in Argentina, they eat a lot of beef. It’s a cultural high food item for them. If they export more, their price goes up in their country. They have a lot of struggles in their economy and may not be interested in higher beef prices given the challenges they have.”
A double scoop for Argentina
The fact that Trump is pushing importing beef from Argentina earned additional criticism, given how Trump gave $20 billion in aid to that country, which competes with the U.S. in the soybean market.
Two weeks ago, the U.S. Treasury Department announced its currency swap framework loan to boost Argentina’s economy. Meanwhile, Trump is in a standoff with China over tariffs and agricultural goods. China’s purchase of U.S. soybeans dwindled down to zero in September, a first for the modern U.S.-China trade relationship. China is the largest buyer of U.S. soybeans and bought half of the U.S. soybean supply in 2023 and 2024.
But with the supply chain now cut to those commodities in a bumper crop year for U.S. farmers, China is going elsewhere to buy, and Argentina is ready to step in. China purchased one-quarter, some 7 million metric tons, of Argentina's soybean crop on Sept. 23, and Argentina suspended its own export tax in the same purchase.
“U.S. soybean prices are falling, harvest is underway, and farmers read headlines not about securing a trade agreement with China, but that the U.S. government is extending 20 billion dollars in economic support to Argentina while that country drops its soybean export taxes to sell 20 shiploads of Argentine soybeans to China in just two days,” said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, in a statement.
One major barrier to U.S. beef production remains the closure of the U.S.-Mexico border to live cattle imports due to the New World screwworm. Anderson said that should be the more effective focus for expanding beef access in the U.S., where feeders add weight to imported calves and sell the fat cattle to U.S. packers.
“Domestically, we have the smallest herd since 1961 and are producing fewer calves, and then we import 1.2 million feeder calves from Mexico,” Anderson said. “But it’s important for Texas and Southwestern cattle feeders. It’s about 3 to 4 percent of our normal calf crop every year."
Anderson did a review of 2024 feedlot placements in Texas, California and Arizona, and found those imported calves from Mexico amounted to 18% of ttheir total placements.
“It’s a really important part of the feeder cattle supply,” he said. “But if you give it a few months, it then becomes an even bigger part of the total U.S. beef supply.”
