In the news affecting a dairy producer's bottom line the third week of November 2025:
- Class I base milk price rebounds to $18.21 in December 2025
- Fluid milk sales move 2.5% higher in September
- GDT index drops for seventh consecutive event
- U.S. dairy praises Latin American trade frameworks
- Second stage of crop disaster assistance, milk loss program applications due
Class I base milk price rebounds to $18.21 in December 2025
The Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) advanced Class I base price rebounded in December 2025, rising $1.46 per hundredweight (cwt) from November’s low to hit $18.21 per cwt.
November’s Class I base milk price was the lowest in 2025 and the lowest on record since August 2023. Despite the increase in December 2025, the Class I base price is $3.22 per cwt less than December 2024 and the lowest for that month since 2018.
With December, the Class I base price averaged $18.94 per cwt in 2025, $1.41 less than 2024 and the lowest annual average since 2021.
The Class I base price will impact December regional FMMO uniform milk prices, which will be announced Jan. 11-14, 2026.
Class I zone differentials are added to the base price principal pricing points to determine the actual Class I price in each FMMO. With those additions, December’s Class I prices should average about $22.33 per cwt across all FMMOs. The highest price is in the Florida FMMO at $25.01 per cwt, and the lowest price is $20.81 per cwt in the Arizona FMMO.
The December 2025 Class I base skim milk price was $12.74 per cwt, an increase of $2.12 cents from November 2025 and $1.76 per cwt higher than December 2024. The spread in the monthly advanced Class III milk pricing factor ($12.74 per cwt) and advanced Class IV skim milk pricing factor ($8.49 per cwt) was $4.25, widening $1.78 from November, with Class III being the “higher of” and used as the Class I mover in the milk pricing formula. The advanced butterfat pricing factor was $1.69 per pound, a 17-cent fall from November to December as an oversupply continues to put pressure on prices.
Fluid milk sales move 2.5% higher in September
Fluid milk sales for September 2025 increased 2.5% from last year. According to data from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service:
- Total sales: September 2025 sales of packaged fluid milk products were estimated at 3.6 billion pounds, up 2.5% from the same month a year earlier. At 31.5 billion pounds, year-to-date sales of all fluid products are 1.1% lower than last year.
- Conventional products: Monthly sales totaled 3.3 billion pounds, up 2.7% from the same month a year earlier. Sales of flavored whole milk were 12% higher than last year, and flavored fat-reduced milk was up 12.9%. Sales of reduced fat (2%) milk and lowfat (1%) milk were down 3.8% and 0.1%, respectively. Year-to-date 2025 sales were estimated at 29.3 billion pounds, down 1.1% from this time last year.
- Organic products: September sales totaled 251 million pounds, 0.5% more than a year earlier. Sales were up nearly 4% for both whole milk and reduced fat (2%) milk. Year-to-date organic fluid milk sales were estimated at 2.2 billion pounds, down 1.2% from this time last year. Organic represented about 7% total fluid product sales in September.
The U.S. figures are based on consumption of fluid milk products in FMMO areas, which account for approximately 92% of total U.S. fluid milk sales, and adding the other 8% from outside FMMO-regulated areas. Sales outlets include food stores, convenience stores, warehouse stores/wholesale clubs, nonfood stores, schools, the food service industry and home delivery.
GDT index drops for seventh consecutive event
The price index of dairy product prices sold on the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) platform is down 3% in the auction held Nov. 18. This is the seventh consecutive downward change and the lowest index value since August 2024.
Compared to the previous auction, prices for individual product categories were lower. Butter was down 7.6% and anhydrous milkfat was down 5%. Mozzarella and cheddar cheese were down 2.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Whole milk powder was down by 1.9%, and skim milk powder was down 0.6%. Lactose and buttermilk powder saw little change.
The GDT platform offers dairy products from several global companies: Fonterra (New Zealand), Darigold, Valley Milk and Dairy America (U.S.), Inalpi (Italy), Arla (Denmark), Arla Foods Ingredients (Denmark), BMI (Germany), Kerry Dairy (Ireland) and Solarec (Belgium).
The next GDT auction is Dec. 2.
U.S. dairy praises Latin American trade frameworks
The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) praised a recent announcement of new trade frameworks with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala, which collectively position U.S. dairy exporters for further gains in the Western Hemisphere.
“U.S. dairy exports to U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement partners have almost doubled over the past five years. The frameworks the administration has negotiated with Guatemala and El Salvador position our exporters to really capitalize on that landscape during the first duty-free year of dairy trade under the CAFTA-DR trade agreement by ensuring that nontariff trade barriers don’t slow our progress,” said Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF. “Nontariff barriers tend to sprout up like weeds when tariffs disappear, which is why these commitments are so important in this region. The nontariff commitments announced with Argentina and Ecuador also may help resolve multiple long-standing issues in those markets.”
“The U.S. Dairy Export Council has been keenly focused on maximizing export opportunities into our FTA partner markets so that we make the most of markets where we have a level playing field against other competitors. Central America has been a key part of that strategy of growing our exports of cheese and other dairy products and creating partnerships that have been crucial to the economic well-being of our dairy farmers, which is why these frameworks with Guatemala and El Salvador are particularly welcome,” said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. “Ecuador has the potential to be a good market, but too often, nontariff barriers have impeded access to this and other markets where opportunities exist. The commitments the administration has secured on these topics in Latin America are crucial to avoiding those problems. Dairy exporters and farmers hope that the Argentina and Ecuador deals will deliver predictable access and also include additional market access, especially for dairy ingredients and cheese.”
The U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) has delivered important gains for U.S. dairy exporters in Central America. This year marked the point at which all CAFTA-DR dairy tariffs were finally eliminated. Under the frameworks announced, El Salvador and Guatemala will provide valuable new nontariff commitments to allow U.S. dairy exporters to fully capitalize on those FTA opportunities including expediting product registration requirements for U.S. exports, removing apostille requirements, committing to continue accepting currently agreed dairy certificate, ensuring that market access for U.S. agricultural exporters will not be restricted due to the mere use of certain cheese terms, and assurances of transparency and fairness regarding geographical indications.
The framework with Argentina included commitments to not require facility registration for U.S. dairy products, not restrict market access for products that use certain cheese terms, and provide preferential market access for “a wide range of [U.S.] agricultural products.”
The framework with Ecuador included commitments to reform its import licensing and facility registration systems for food and agricultural products, not restrict market access due to the use of certain cheese terms, and “reduce or eliminate tariffs … [for] certain agricultural products [and] establish tariff-rate quotas on a number of other agricultural goods.”
U.S. dairy exports last year to Guatemala and El Salvador totaled $127 million and $50 million, respectively. U.S. dairy sales to Ecuador and Argentina have to date been much more limited due in key part to the lack of a bilateral trade agreement with either partner; exports amounted to only $6 million and $3 million respectively last year.
Second stage of crop disaster assistance, milk loss program applications due
USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) is delivering more than $16 billion in total congressionally approved Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) assistance. This is on top of over $9.3 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) assistance to over 560,000 row crop farmers and over $705 million in Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) assistance to over 220,000 ranchers. Stage Two of SDRP covers eligible crop, tree, bush and vine losses that were not covered under Stage One program provisions, including nonindemnified (shallow loss), uncovered and quality losses.
The first stage, announced in July, remains available to producers who received an indemnity under crop insurance or the Noninsured Crop Disaster Assistance Program (NAP) for eligible crop losses due to qualifying 2023 and 2024 natural disaster events. FSA county offices will begin accepting SDRP Stage Two applications on Nov. 24. Producers have until April 30, 2026, to apply for both Stage One and Stage Two assistance. FSA is establishing block grants with Connecticut, Hawaii, Maine and Massachusetts that cover crop losses; therefore, producers with losses on land physically located in these states are not eligible for SDRP program payments.
The Milk Loss Program provides up to $1.65 million in payments to eligible dairy operations for milk that was dumped or removed without compensation from the commercial milk market because of a qualifying natural disaster event in 2023 and/or 2024.
Producers who suffered losses of eligible harvested commodities while stored in on-farm structures in 2023 and/or 2024 due to a qualifying natural disaster event may be eligible for assistance through the On-Farm Stored Commodity Loss Program, which provides for up to $5 million to impacted producers.
The enrollment period to apply for milk and on-farm stored commodity losses is Nov. 24 through Jan. 23, 2026.
