The latest USDA Cattle on Feed report pegs Nov. 1 feedlot inventories at 11.83 million head in feedlots with a capacity of 1,000 head or more. This is 101.2% of last year and up 4.8% from October as feedlot inventories increase to a seasonal peak.

On Nov. 21, 2019, the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) published a study on livestock mandatory reporting (LMR) negotiated slaughter cattle market reporting.

The 2019 beef production forecast was reduced by 5 million pounds from the previous month but remains at a rounded 26.9 billion pounds. The reduction was based on a slower-than-expected pace of fed cattle slaughter that was partially offset by greater expected cow slaughter and slightly higher expected cattle dressed weights.

The Holcomb, Kansas, packing plant fire has certainly been a black swan event – rare, unpredictable and has had dramatic effects on the cattle industry.

Boxed beef prices increased about 10% over the month of October into early November. This increase was significantly higher than the normal seasonal bump of less than 2% from October to November.

President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially finalized the much-anticipated limited U.S.-Japan trade agreement and its digital counterpart in a signing ceremony at the White House in early October.

On Aug. 9, a fire damaged Tyson Foods’ Holcomb, Kansas, beef processing plant, rendering it inoperable through 2019, according to the company. This plant was estimated to have a capacity equivalent to about 5% to 6% of fed cattle slaughtered weekly.

The latest livestock and meat monthly trade data from the Economic Research Service (ERS) was released on Oct. 7 and included the month of August 2019 as the most recent data available.

After setting new value records in June and July, U.S. beef exports to South Korea slowed 9% from a year ago in August to 22,307 metric tons (MT), while value dropped 11% to $157.4 million.

Uncertainty over trade policy, weather and African swine fever dominated agricultural markets last quarter, causing greater volatility across the industry that’s affecting producers, supply chains and end users, according to the latest Quarterly Rural Economic Review from the CoBank Knowledge Exchange division.