George abby
Editor / Progressive Cattle

The December Feed Outlook report shows the 2024-25 U.S. corn ending stocks are reduced on greater use. The 2024-25 U.S. coarse grains supply forecast remains relatively unchanged this month at 447.5 million tons. Although China continues to exhibit weak demand for U.S. corn, alternative destinations are seen purchasing U.S. corn – which competes with Argentina as the cheapest in the global market. Observed census and export inspection shipments (plus outstanding sales to date) contribute to a 150-million-bushel increase in the 2024-25 U.S. corn export forecast. Moreover, elevated but stable domestic gasoline demand continues from the prior year into the early part of 2024-25, along with strong foreign demand for U.S. ethanol. As such, the corn-for-ethanol-use forecast is raised 50 million bushels this month. A minimal change was made to the sorghum balance sheet (imports) this month, and prices remain at parity with corn at $4.10 per bushel.

With no changes to U.S. coarse grains production, reductions in foreign production lower global output prospects. Decreases in coarse grains production for the European Union, Mexico, Indonesia and Australia are partly offset by higher output for Ukraine, Canada, Australia and China. Global coarse grains consumption is expected to be higher, particularly with strong internal demand from Brazil. World coarse grains trade is marginally higher. Higher projected U.S. corn exports are partly offset by reduced corn exports from Brazil and the European Union. The lowered Australian barley projected output reduces world barley exports. Global coarse grains stocks are reduced.

Demand for U.S. corn strengthens

There are no changes to 2024-25 U.S. corn production and supplies this month. Despite a slight downward revision to yields in November by the USDA National Statistics Service (NASS) to 183.1 bushels per acre, this projection remains just over 3% higher than the 2023-24 yield estimate. A year-over-year decline in planted corn area of nearly 4 million acres contributes to a production forecast of 15.1 billion bushels – nearly 200 million bushels behind last year. However, higher beginning stocks in 2024-25 are more than offsetting, boosting the supply projection 200 million bushels above last year to 16.9 billion bushels.

The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) reported that (as of Nov. 28) U.S. corn export commitments (accumulated exports plus outstanding sales) were nearly 1.35 billion bushels. This number is roughly 330 million bushels higher than the same time last year and is largely driven by strong demand from Spain, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Morocco, Tunisia, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico. The stronger-than-anticipated corn demand from these countries more than offsets weak demand by China, reflected in China’s total commitments that are nearly 99% lower than this time last year at 26.3 million tons. Although unknown outstanding corn sales are nearly 190 million bushels higher than last year, recent export sales reports indicate China may account for a smaller portion of unknown sales than in prior years. Other destinations, like Saudi Arabia, Colombia, Tunisia, Vietnam, Japan and the United Kingdom have constituted a larger share of the unknown category than expected thus far.

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Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from December.