The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed this month’s 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, feed and residual use, exports and ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel-per-acre cut in yield to 179.3 bushels is partially offset by a 0.2 million-acre increase in harvested area. Total corn use is down 75 million bushels to 15.1 billion. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. Exports are cut 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion, reflecting lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 198 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 15 cents to $4.25 per bushel.
U.S. oilseed production for 2024-25 is estimated at 128.5 million tons, down 2.7 million from the previous report. Soybean production is estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million led by decreases for Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa and Ohio. Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres, down 0.2 million. Yield is estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, down 1 bushel. With lower production, slightly higher imports and unchanged exports and crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 380 million bushels, down 90 million. The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month.
The outlook for 2024-25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports and marginally higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 130 million, all on hard red spring. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes based on the NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is increased 2 million bushels to 64 million, based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports are unchanged at 850 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024-25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15% from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced 5 cents per bushel to $5.55 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
Red meat and poultry production for 2024 is lowered from last month due to lower beef, pork, broiler and turkey production in the fourth quarter. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. For 2025, the beef forecast is raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released Jan. 31, 2025, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2025 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd.
Beef import and export estimates for 2024 are raised on recent trade data. For 2025, beef imports are raised largely on continued strong shipments of beef from Oceania and South America. The 2025 beef export forecast is unchanged. Price estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2025, cattle prices are raised on recent prices and continued strong demand for cattle and beef.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from January.