The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released March 11.
Milk production, prices
The milk production forecast for 2024 was adjusted to reflect recent domestic and trade data. The 2025 production forecast is reduced on lower expected milk output per cow more than offsetting slightly higher cow inventories.
Milk and dairy product price forecasts reflect the updated price formulas of the Federal Milk Marketing Order, as published in the Federal Register on Jan. 17, by the Agricultural Marketing Service. Almost all of the changes do not become effective until June 1.
- At 225.9 billion pounds, the 2024 production estimate was unchanged from last month’s report and would be 400 million pounds less than the 2023 total of 226.3 billion pounds.
For 2024, prices for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey were adjusted to reflect reported prices. As a result, the Class III milk price estimate is unchanged at $18.89 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is unchanged at $20.75 per cwt. The all-milk price estimate stayed the same at $22.61 per cwt.
- In its forecast for 2025, the USDA estimated milk production at 226.2 billion pounds, lowered 700 million pounds from last month’s report.
Cheese, butter, NDM and whey prices for 2025 are all lowered based on recent prices. As a result, the Class III milk price forecast is lowered to $17.95 per cwt, and the Class IV price is also lowered to $18.80 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is lowered a dollar to $21.60 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised due to heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter.
Fed cattle price forecasts were lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent prices, and the second half is unchanged as demand for cattle is expected to remain strong. The 2024 average price is estimated to be $187.12 per cwt, with prices averaging $189.75 per cwt in the fourth quarter. If realized, the 2024 average would be up about $12.25 from the 2023 average of $175.54 per cwt. The 2025 average is now forecast at $200 per cwt, with highest prices in the first quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE report provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month.
At $4.35 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged from the February forecast but is down 20 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.55 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections were unchanged from last month.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.95 per bushel, down 15 cents from last month and down $2.45 from the average price of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were unchanged from last month at $310 per short ton, down about $75 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $142 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, cotton production is unchanged at 14.41 million 480-pound bales, as the national all-cotton yield estimate is also unchanged at 836 pounds per harvested acre. Cottonseed production in 2024 was estimated at 4.4 million tons, up about 750,000 tons (21%) from 2023. January cottonseed prices averaged $217, down $7 from December and $43 more than January 2024.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $242 per ton in January, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $161 per ton, and prices for other hay averaged $140 per ton.
A picture of major crop production and supplies for 2025 will become clearer with the USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports, both to be released on March 31.
