The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released April 10.
Milk production, prices
The 2025 milk production forecast is raised on larger cow inventories and slightly higher milk output per cow. Estimated at 226.9 billion pounds, it was raised 700 million pounds from last month’s report.
Milk and dairy product price forecasts reflect the updated price formulas of the Federal Milk Marketing Order, as published in the Federal Register on Jan. 17 by the Agricultural Marketing Service. Almost all the changes do not become effective until June 1.
Cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices for 2025 are all lowered based on recent prices and higher expected milk supplies. As a result, the Class III milk price forecast is lowered to $17.60 per hundredweight (cwt), and the Class IV price is also lowered to $18.20 cwt. The 2025 all-milk price is lowered 50 cents to $21.10 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2025, the beef production forecast is raised as heavier dressed weights and higher cow and bull slaughter are partially offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter.
Fed cattle price forecasts were raised on reported data through the first quarter and expected robust demand for the remainder of the year. The 2025 average is now forecast at $206 per cwt, with highest prices in the fourth quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE report provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook called for greater exports, reduced feed and residual use, and smaller ending stocks.
At $4.35 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged from the March forecast but is down 20 cents from the 2023-24 average of $4.55 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2024-25 U.S. soybean supply and use projections include higher imports and crush, and lower ending stocks.
The 2024-25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.95 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down $2.45 from the average price of $12.40 per bushel in 2023-24. Projected soybean meal prices were lowered $10 to $300 per short ton, down about $85 from the 2023-24 average of $385 per ton and $152 less than the 2022-23 average of $452 per ton.
- Cottonseed: As a predictor of cottonseed availability, cotton production is unchanged at 14.41 million 480-pound bales, as the national all-cotton yield estimate is also unchanged at 836 pounds per harvested acre. Cottonseed production in 2024 was estimated at 4.4 million tons, up about 750,000 tons (21%) from 2023. February cottonseed prices averaged $250, up $33 from January and $73 more than February 2024.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $243 per ton in February, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $159 per ton, and prices for other hay averaged $143 per ton.
