The May Feed Outlook report shows record-high 2025-26 U.S. corn supplies support elevated corn exports. U.S. old and new corn crop export forecasts are both raised this month on increased price competitiveness and the slower-than-expected pace of shipments from Argentina and Brazil. U.S. corn exports for 2024-25 were raised 50 million bushels this month to 2,600 million, the highest since the 2020-21 marketing year, when exports reached 2,747 million bushels. Recent trade developments combine with the strong pace of old-crop movement to provide support for the new-crop export projection of 2,675 million bushels – up 75 million bushels from the revised 2024-25 forecast. Higher projected total utilization is more than offset by the impact of expanded corn supplies, resulting in an outyear stocks-to-use ratio that is currently forecast at 11.6%, 2.4% above the 2024-25 ratio. Projections for larger U.S. corn supplies and ending stocks support a year-to-year decline in the season-average farm price, currently projected at $4.20 per bushel for the 2025-26 marketing year, down 15 cents from 2024-25.
On year-to-year planted-area gains – as indicated in the March 31, 2025, USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings report – and yields based on a weather-adjusted trend (assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather), the 2025-26 U.S. corn crop is on track to be the largest on record. Estimated corn-planted area is set to jump by nearly 5 million acres in the new marketing year to 95.326 million, an increase of 4.7 million from a year ago. Forty of the 48 reporting U.S. states indicate expectations for unchanged or expanded corn acres – with record-high plantings anticipated for Idaho, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon and South Dakota. Elevated planted area and application of the average harvested-to-planted ratio (taking into account historical abandonment and use for silage) lift harvested area to 87.4 million acres. In combination with trend yields, corn production for the 2025-26 marketing year is projected at a record-high 15,820 million bushels.
As of the week ending May 4, 2025, planting in key corn-producing states (Iowa and Illinois) lagged the five-year average pace, with 32% and 49% planted in 2025, compared to averages of 44% and 53%, respectively. Beneficial rains fell across large swaths of the U.S. between late April and early May, creating largely favorable conditions for corn development. As of the week ending May 4, emergence stood at 11% compared to the five-year average of 9%. Iowa, Kansas and Texas each reported emergence at 4% to 8% points ahead of the average pace.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from May.
