U.S. beef exports have faced considerable headwinds in 2025, largely in the form of high tariff rates and the ensuing trade policy fallout in key markets for U.S. beef. According to data from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), the latest export numbers show that July beef exports totaled 89,579 metric tons (MT), a 19% drop compared from 2024 and the lowest in five years. Export values totaled $752.5 million, a 17% decrease and the lowest since January 2023. Overall, exports were down 8% in volume and 7.5% in value from January through July compared to 2024.
This sharp decline in exports is largely due to the massive fall of exports to China. In 2024, China imported a record 2.87 million MT of U.S. beef, making it the third-largest export market value-wise and the fourth-largest by volume. In 2025, July exports to China dropped 92% from a year ago to 1,110 MT. Export value dropped 94% to less than $8 million. Year-to-date exports to China are down 46% at 55,632 MT, and value is down 47% with a total of $481.4 million.
The current 32% tariff on U.S. beef is surely a contributing factor to the almost disappearance of exports to China, but there is a bigger barrier at play. China has allowed the registrations of a majority of U.S. beef plants and cold-storage facilities to lapse after they expired in March, and no steps have been taken to renew them. China has suspended 11 U.S. facilities since June.
“The plant registration impasse with China unfortunately drags on, and it has left U.S. beef essentially shut out of the market after exporters worked through their eligible inventories,” USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom explained in a statement. “Demand elsewhere has remained fairly resilient, even in the face of higher pricing, but restoring access to China is clearly the urgent priority.”
If facility registrations are not renewed and other stipulations from the U.S.-China Phase I Agreement continue to be unmet, exports to China are likely to remain very low.
The federation estimates that losing beef exports to China could total around $4 billion annually.
Silver lining: South Korea
U.S. beef exports regained a bit of their footing in South Korea, with July exports totaling 19,907 MT, a 13% increase compared to 2024. Export value increased 10% to $186.4 million. Exports increased 9% in both volume (146,084 MT) and value ($1.39 billion) from January to July.
President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea in July, but as of this publication date, there are no further details on ag-related issues.
South Korea still adheres to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE)-related restrictions including no U.S. beef from cattle more than 30 months old, restrictions on certain products derived from cattle less than 30 months old and a requirement that Canadian cattle must be fed for at least 100 days in the U.S. These restrictions are not in line with current international standards, and if they were removed, USMEF estimates that expanded export opportunities could result in a $140 million annual increase.
