The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released its midyear Cattle report on July 21, offering an important update on cattle inventories. The report confirmed that the U.S. cow herd has continued to decline through the first half of the year.
As of July 1, beef cow inventories were down 3% from a year ago at 29.4 million head. This marks a record low, falling below the 2014 low of 29.8 million head, James Mitchell of the University of Arkansas pointed out in a Cattle Market Notes Weekly newsletter.
With the decline in cow numbers, the 2023 calf crop is expected to be 33.8 million head, down 2% from last year. The estimated number of calves born in the first half of 2023 is 24.8 million, down 2% compared to the first half of 2022. Another 9 million calves are expected to be born in the second half of 2023. Mitchell also noted that this is the fifth consecutive annual decline in calf crop, making it the lowest total since 2014 at 33.5 million head.
Interestingly, there is no indication of heifer retention in the report, as heifers kept for replacements were down 2% from last year at 4.05 million head. The July Cattle on Feed report shows the number of heifers on feed was unchanged from last year, with heifers representing 39.9% of total feedlot inventories. This is the highest percentage since 2002, despite consecutive years of a declining calf crop.
It is expected that tighter supplies across all classes of cattle will continue to push prices higher. In response to the midyear report, Patrick Linnell of CattleFax wrote, “Expansion is expected to begin in a big way in the second half of 2023 with reduced beef cow culling and more heifers kept back. However, tighter numbers will continue to support higher prices until supplies can begin to recover.”
