In the news affecting dairy producers' bottom lines the first full week of October 2025:
- U.S. government shutdown hits day nine
- NEXT assists with nearly 80 million pounds of dairy product export sales
- GDT index down 1.6%
- USDEC advances trade between Taiwan, Indonesia
- Farmer sentiment holds, yet concerns about current conditions weaken
U.S. government shutdown hits day nine
After Congress failed to pass a funding package, the U.S. government has been shut down for over a week.
Roughly half of the UDSA’s employees have been furloughed.
This affects more than 6,000 staff at Farm Service Agency (FSA) county offices, and their ability to process payments under the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP), disaster assistance programs, ARC/PLC and Conservation Reserve Program (CRP). The FSA is unable to accept and process new farm loans at this time.
The recently announced Emergency Livestock Relief Program (ELRP) for 2023 and 2024 floods and wildfires is paused. However, application materials are still available on the website. Producers are encouraged to gather materials to prepare for the original Oct. 31 application deadline.
Even more employees of the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) have been furloughed and county offices closed, halting all technical assistance and payments from the agency.
Most of the research and non-mandatory data collection by the USDA is on hold. Data reports covering U.S. milk production, trade data, cold storage, etc., are suspended, but pricing information will continue.
Most of the employees remaining will be at the U.S. Forest Service, the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) to carry out food safety inspections, export certifications and animal health programs related to diseases like highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and New World screwworm.
The full severity of the shutdown is affected by its length. With no resolution in sight, how long this will last remains unknown.
NEXT assists with nearly 80 million pounds of dairy product export sales
In the first three months of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) Exports & Trade (NEXT) program, member cooperatives accepted 380 offers of export assistance from NEXT in the third quarter of 2025, helping them capture sales contracts for 29.9 million pounds (13,550 metric tons) of American-type cheese, 2.8 million pounds (1,252 metric tons) of butter, 2.3 million pounds (1,033 metric tons) of anhydrous milkfat, 27.2 million pounds (12,335 metric tons) of whole milk powder and 3.6 million pounds (1,625 metric tons) of cream cheese. These contracts also added 9.9 million pounds (4,475 metric tons) of skim milk powder and 4.4 million pounds (1,988 metric tons) of milk protein concentrate to 2025 NEXT-assisted export sales.
Total assisted product was more than 4.5 times greater than the same time period the year prior under the Cooperatives Working Together program. The product is going to customers in Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Middle East-North Africa, Oceania and South America, and will be delivered from July 2025 through May 2026.
The referenced amounts of dairy products reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes.
GDT index down 1.6%
The price index of dairy product prices sold on the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) platform fell 1.6% in the auction held Oct. 7. This was the fourth consecutive event to trade lower and was the lowest calculated index since October 2024.
Compared to the previous auction, prices for individual product categories were mostly lower. Anydrous milkfat and cheddar cheese traded higher, up 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Mozzarella fell by 11.8%. Butter was down 3%, and buttermilk powder and whole milk powder both fell by 2.3%. Skim milk powder was down by 0.5%. Lactose was not offered at this trading event.
The GDT platform offers dairy products from several global companies: Fonterra (New Zealand), Darigold, Valley Milk and Dairy America (U.S.), Inalpi (Italy), Arla (Denmark), Arla Foods Ingredients (Denmark), BMI (Germany), Kerry Dairy (Ireland) and Solarec (Belgium).
The next GDT auction is Oct. 21.
USDEC advances trade between Taiwan, Indonesia
The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC), NMPF and the Dairy Association of Taiwan (DAT) signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in a milestone step to strengthen the relationship between the U.S. and Taiwanese dairy sectors.
Less than a week later, USDEC and The Indonesian Food and Beverage Industry Association (GAPMMI Indonesia) signed an MOU to strengthen bilateral cooperation, support multilateral engagement and advance sustainable dairy trade between the U.S. and Indonesia.
With Taiwan, the MOU underscores the importance of facilitating trade, defending the image of dairy, supporting dairy farming and deepening cooperation between the two countries on dairy benefits and trade.
The GAPMMI Indonesia MOU establishes a framework for collaboration on shared priorities, including greater engagement in international standard-setting and multilateral processes, knowledge exchange to advance sustainable production and joint support for healthy lifestyle campaigns. It also paves the way for co-created communications that showcase the nutritional and economic benefits of dairy while reinforcing U.S.-Indonesia trade ties.
Both Taiwan and Indonesia are growing markets.
By reinforcing shared goals on sustainability, nutrition and trade, the agreements set the stage for deeper collaboration and stronger dairy partnerships with the U.S. and these countries well into the future.
Farmer sentiment holds, yet concerns about current conditions weaken
Farmer sentiment in September only shifted one point higher from August, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. Producers perceptions of current conditions weakened but were balanced by increased optimism about the future.
Producers were surveyed just after the USDA released expectations for record-high corn and soybean yields and correspondingly weak prices for the crops.
“Expectations for the future were buttressed by producers’ perception that U.S. policy is ‘headed in the right direction’ and by rising expectations that a program similar to 2019’s Market Facilitation Program (MFP) will provide payments to farmers in compensation for lower commodity prices,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
Fewer farmers said they expect farmland values to rise in the year ahead. The weaker financial outlook has fewer farmers looking to make capital investments.
The Ag Economy Barometer provides a monthly snapshot of farmer sentiment regarding the state of the agricultural economy. The survey collects responses from 400 producers whose annual market value of production is equal to or exceeds $500,000. Minimum targets by enterprise are as follows: 53% corn/soybeans, 14% wheat, 3% cotton, 19% beef cattle, 5% dairy and 6% hogs. Latest survey results, released Oct. 7, reflect ag producer outlooks as of Sept. 15-19.
