The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed this month’s 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production; higher feed and residual use; reduced food, seed and industrial use; and greater ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 17 billion bushels, up 269 million on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to 186.5 bushels per acre and a 1.3 million-acre rise in harvested area.
Since the July 2025 WASDE, harvested area has surged 4.5 million acres. Notably, the record crop in 2025 exceeds the prior high set in 2023 by 1.7 billion bushels or over 40 million tons. Total corn use is raised 90 million bushels to 16.4 billion. Feed and residual use is up 100 million bushels to 6.2 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. Food, seed and industrial use is down slightly reflecting reductions in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and high-fructose corn syrup. With supply rising more than use, corn stocks are boosted 198 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.10 per bushel.
U.S. oilseed production for 2025-26 is estimated at 126.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from the previous report. Higher soybean, canola and sunflower seed crops are partly offset by lower cottonseed and peanuts. U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, up 9 million, led by increases for Kansas, Kentucky and Minnesota. Harvested area is estimated at 80.4 million acres, up 0.1 million. Yield is unchanged from last month at 53 bushels per acre. U.S. soybean supply for 2025-26 is raised 17 million bushels on higher beginning stocks and production. Soybean crush for 2025-26 is raised 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels on higher soybean meal domestic disappearance and exports. Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates are also revised based on early-season data. Soybean oil used for biofuel is lowered 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion on lower-than-expected use to date and strong use of tallow as a feedstock in recent months.
The outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies, lower domestic use, unchanged exports and larger ending stocks. Beginning stocks are raised 4 million bushels on stock revisions in today’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Grain Stocks report. Feed and residual use is reduced 20 million bushels to 100 million based on smaller-than-expected first-quarter disappearance and residual indicated in the same report. Seed use is lowered 1 million bushels to 61 million, partly based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports are unchanged at 900 million bushels, but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 926 million, up 8% from the previous year. The season-average farm price is lowered 10 cents per bushel to $4.90.
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is raised as higher pork and beef production are partially offset by lower poultry production. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. For 2026, beef production is raised on heavier dressed weights. Heavier weights will more than offset reduced fed cattle slaughter in the second half of the year. The USDA’s Cattle report, which will be released Jan. 30, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2026 as well as producer intentions to retain heifers for the breeding herd.
The beef import forecast for 2025 is raised based on recent trade data. Increased beef imports are carried over into 2026 on more expected shipments from Oceania and South America. Beef exports for 2025 are lowered based on recent trade data, with the 2026 outlook also reduced on increased export competition. Cattle prices for 2026 are raised on recent price data for the first quarter and tighter fed cattle supplies expected in the second half of the year.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from January.
