The January Feed Outlook report shows estimates of the 2025-26 corn crop were elevated to 17 billion bushels. Corn production was already a record high prior to the update, subsequently the U.S. corn harvest was augmented by gains in harvested area – up 1.2 million acres and 1.3% from the prior forecast to 91.3 million. Area harvested for corn in 2025 is the highest since 1933. Corn yields were also lifted, up 0.5 bushel per acre to a record-high 186.5 bushels, continuing the third consecutive year of yield gains. Record-high corn production is reported for leading corn-producing states Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Minnesota and South Dakota. U.S. corn supplies are raised 288 million bushels both on production gains and larger carry-in after adjustments to 2024-25 ending stocks. Accounting for utilization updates, corn ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year are raised nearly 200 million bushels to more than 2.2 billion bushels, the highest since 2018-19.
New-crop U.S. corn supplies rise on key data releases
On Jan. 12, 2026, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released two reports that are key to updates published in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The first NASS report is the Crop Production summary, which provided updates to the 2025-26 corn harvest. The second is the Grain Stocks report, which provides inventory data as of Dec. 1, 2025, and implied measures of first-quarter corn disappearance – informing utilization estimates.
Data contained in the January-released NASS Crop Production report provide updates to earlier estimates released in November. Data sources for the updated production estimates include operator reported surveys conducted between Dec. 4-27, 2025, and reflect a sample size of approximately 73,000 farmers. Additional data come from field surveys which inform objective yield estimates for corn and soybeans. Further data are sourced from Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage reporting on enrolled cropland and both FSA and Risk Management Agency reports on “failed” or abandoned acres.
On the basis of this NASS data, the 2025-26 corn harvest is augmented by both sharply higher harvested acres – elevated 1.3% to 91.3 million acres – and a half-bushel-per-acre yield increase. In addition to including data for 10 U.S. states previously aggregated into the “Other States” category, the latest production report indicates significant additions of acres in a number of key corn-producing states. Fully 85% of the 1.21 million-acre increase in U.S. corn harvested area is attributable to gains for six states: South Dakota (up 240,000 acres from the prior estimate), Kansas (up 210,00 acres), Iowa (up 200,000 acres), Nebraska (up 150,000 acres), North Dakota (up 140,000 acres) and Texas (up 90,000 acres). Collectively, these six states are expected to harvest approximately 47% of the U.S. total corn acreage for the 2025-26 marketing year.
China’s corn production boosts 2025-26 world coarse grain
Output Global coarse grains production for 2025-26 is projected 14.8 million metric tons (MT) higher this month to 1,590.6 million MT, mostly due to increases in projected corn production in the U.S. and China. Foreign coarse grain output (global minus U.S. output) is projected up 7.8 million MT, or slightly more than half the projected global increase. The increase in foreign coarse grains production is largely attributed to corn, which is projected up 6.2 million MT. The remaining foreign coarse grains production gains this month are attributed primarily to barley and oats.
This month, there are few changes to 2025-26 foreign corn production prospects, with the key change being a 6.2 million MT increase for China, based on estimates from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. China’s projected 2025-26 corn production of 301.2 million MT continues a long-term trend of increasing corn production and would eclipse the country’s previous record output (2024-25) by 2%. The increased 2025-26 projection is the result of increased harvested area (up 660,000 hectares) and increased yield (up 0.04 MT per hectare).
The only other change to 2025-26 foreign corn production is a slight decrease for Japan.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from January.
