The USDA’s monthly World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report was released March 10.
Milk production, prices
Milk production for 2025 is revised on the latest data reported by NASS in the Milk Production report, while revisions to milk supply and use for 2025 reflect revised cold storage data and trade data through December.
- At 231.7 billion pounds, the 2025 milk production estimate was raised 200 million pounds from last month’s report and would be up 5.8 billion from 2024’s total of 225.9 billion pounds.
The milk production forecast for 2026 is raised from last month, as increases to the dairy cow inventory more than offset slower growth in output per cow.
- In its forecast for 2026, the USDA estimated milk production at 234.7 billion pounds, up 200 million pounds from a month earlier. If realized, 2026 production would be up about 1.3% from 2025.
Based on recent price strength, cheese, butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) price forecasts are all raised for 2026. The whey price forecast is lowered. The Class III milk price forecast was unchanged at $16.65 per cwt with higher cheese prices offsetting lower whey prices. The Class IV milk price was raised to $17.15 per cwt due to the stronger butter and NDM price outlook. The 2026 all-milk price is raised 75 cents $19.70 per cwt.
Beef outlook
For 2026, beef production is forecast lower on the slower-than-expected pace of slaughter through early March, partially offset by heavier dressed weights. Lower expected slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher slaughter for outlying quarters. As these cattle are placed on feed in the first half of the year, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.
Fed cattle prices are raised through the first three quarters of 2026 based on recent prices and continued strong demand for fed cattle. The 2025 average was forecast at $224.37 per cwt, while the 2026 average is now forecast at $242 per cwt, with highest prices in the fourth quarter of the year.
Feed supply, price forecasts
The USDA’s WASDE report provided potential insights into dairy feedstuff supplies and prices:
- Corn: This month’s WASDE 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month.
- At $4.10 per bushel, the projected season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged from the previous report and down a quarter from the 2024-25 average of $4.35 per bushel.
- Soybeans: This month’s 2025-26 U.S. soybean supply and use projections include increased imports and crush, and unchanged ending stocks.
- The 2025-26 U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $10.20 per bushel and unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price was raised $5 to $300 per short ton, and the soybean oil prices was also raised 2 cents to 55 cents per pound.
- Cottonseed: This month’s 2025-26 U.S. cotton balance and prices are unchanged.
- The projected season average farm price is unchanged at 60 cents per pound, a decline of 3 cents from last year and 31 cents since 2021-22.
Alfalfa and other hay
The latest USDA Ag Prices report indicated dairy-quality alfalfa hay prices averaged $226 per ton in January, while alfalfa hay prices averaged $160 per ton and prices for other hay averaged $131 per ton.
