Beef production in 2021 is expected to total 27.95 billion pounds, up 55 million pounds from the previous month’s forecast. This increase is driven by a more rapid pace of cow and bull slaughter as well as by heavier cattle dressed weights.

One estimate that analysts like to calculate from the Cattle Inventory report is feeder cattle supplies outside feedlots as of Jan. 1.

In November, slaughter was higher year-over-year. While the increase in total cattle slaughter can be attributed to the additional slaughter day in November 2021 relative to a year prior, the average pace of fed cattle slaughter was higher on a per-weekday basis, with Saturday slaughter averaging lower.

Based on the latest USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) federally inspected Livestock Slaughter report, the inferred (federally inspected production/federally inspected head slaughtered) carcass weight for September is 827.1 pounds, while the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) weekly actual and estimated federally inspected Livestock Slaughter reports showed that the inferred weight for October was 831.8 pounds, about 4.7 pounds heavier month-over-month.

Total commercial beef production in 2021 was raised to 27.832 billion pounds from last month on anticipated heavier carcass weights and higher cow slaughter.

In its October Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook report, the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) indicated that, “U.S. beef exports in August set a new record of 325 million pounds, an increase of 57 million pounds, or 21%, from a year ago.

Slaughter remains higher year-over-year. Preliminary estimated federally inspected cattle slaughter for August was up 3.1% from a year ago. Notably, the weekly estimated FI cow slaughter through Aug. 28 was up 13% year-over-year.

The September USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cattle on Feed report pegged Sept. 1 feedlot inventories at 11.234 million head, 98.6% of last year.

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the midyear Cattle report on July 23, which provided a snapshot of the U.S. cattle inventory, as well as a glimpse into cow-calf producers’ intentions for retaining heifers.

The USDA announced in early August that two new reports, published in USDA Market News and based on Livestock Mandatory Reporting data, will provide additional insight into formula cattle trades and help promote fair and competitive markets.