Dear future self,
What are you going to remember about this time in the cattle business?
Will it be the prices? The record-breaking, headline-grabbing, continually increasing ones? Feeder calves, fat cattle and cull cows are all bringing prices we haven’t seen before, and have been for a while now. Yet, it doesn’t feel as great as it should, does it? Because those prices are tied to something we can’t ignore – we just don’t have enough cattle.
The herd is smaller than it’s been in decades. Years of drought, high feed costs and tough decisions led to cows leaving the herd instead of staying in it. So yes, prices are strong, but they’re being propped up by tight supply, not abundance.
It’s hard to fully relax into a good market when you know how fragile it is with threats we can’t control. With one weather shift, one policy change or one health issue, things could look a lot different.
Then there are the things that used to feel far away but are now knocking at our door.
New World screwworm inches closer and closer to the border with more cases continuing to pop up. Add in tick-borne illnesses and shifting parasite pressures, and it’s clear that herd health and biosecurity aren’t just routine checklist items but things that need constant attention.
Border closures and import restrictions have tightened the supply pipeline even more. Fewer cattle coming in means even more pressure on the supply we already have. At the same time, there’s talk about increasing imports to help fill the gap, which brings its own set of questions. What does that mean for domestic producers? For prices long term? For consumer trust?
And speaking of consumers, they’re feeling it too. While all of this is happening on the production side, the consumer is dealing with their own reality at the grocery store.
Beef prices have surged well beyond typical food inflation. Ground beef has pushed to record highs, and steaks are becoming a luxury item for most families. Are consumers going to start trading down to cheaper proteins?
Ground beef, steaks, roasts, it all adds up quickly at the checkout line. So far, demand has held on better than expected, which says a lot about how much people value beef. But you have to wonder how long that lasts if prices keep climbing. At some point, consumers will have to start making different choices.
That may be the most important piece to remember.
Cattle prices are finally at a true representation of what they are worth. We all know this. Unfortunately, it’s about what beef is worth to the person pushing a cart down the aisle. That’s the part that’s easy to overlook when markets are strong. Because it’s never just about what cattle are worth to us but what beef is worth to them.
So here we are, in a moment that feels pretty unique. There’s opportunity, no doubt about it. For producers who have feed, grass and a solid plan, this is a chance to capitalize. Breeding decisions right now carry a lot of weight, not just for next year, but for the next several years.
But there’s also a reminder running underneath it all, that good markets don’t last forever. They never have. And the ones that feel the strongest sometimes change the fastest.
So maybe that’s what my future self will remember.
Not just the high prices but the balancing act. The mixed feelings of optimism and caution. The excitement in conversations about rebuilding while still managing risk. The opportunity to make small decisions that define our beef industry for years to come. Because at the end of the day, it always comes back to the basics. Grass has to grow. Cows have to breed back. And calves have to stay healthy.
