The April Feed Outlook report shows the U.S. corn exports boost 2024-25 global coarse grains trade prospects. U.S. 2024-25 corn ending stocks are expected to be 75 million bushels lower this month at 1.465 billion bushels. The lower ending stocks follow an increase in exports partially offset by a decrease in feed and residual use, based on second-quarter disappearance.
There are no changes to the 2024-25 season-average farm corn price, at $4.35 per bushel, considering to-date and future price expectations. The 2024-25 season-average farm sorghum price is lowered by 5 cents per bushel, to $4.10 per bushel, accounting for low cash prices increasingly discounted to corn. Corn and sorghum acreage are expected to increase from last year, after the USDA National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS) Prospective Plantings report. Area for barley and oats is expected to be slightly lower.
Competing production changes across the coarse grains complex results in a slight reduction to the 2024-25 projection this month. The largest expected output gain is for corn, followed by sorghum and oats; reductions are expected for millet, barley, rye and mixed grains. Projected trade changes across the coarse grains complex result in an increased 2024-25 projection. This increase is largely driven by strong corn exports – particularly for the U.S. Also reflected through updated import projections, global domestic corn disappearance is lifted this month – particularly as a price-competitive, viable feed source.
The USDA NASS released its latest Grain Stocks report on March 31, 2025. As of March 1, 2025, corn stocks were 201.7 million bushels lower than at the same time last year, at 8,150.7 million bushels. Off-farm stocks were 11.5% above last year. The lower March 1 corn stocks are attributed to on-farm stocks, which declined by 11.4% compared to a year ago and held a lower share of total corn stocks.
Considering the inventory change between Sept. 1 and March 1, indicated corn disappearance for the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is estimated to be 3,929.4 million bushels, up 104.7 million bushels from a year ago. The increase in corn disappearance during the second quarter is supported by strong export activity.
This month, U.S. corn exports are raised by 100 million bushels, to 2,550 million bushels, considering the pace of exports. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census data, U.S. corn exports totaled 695.8 million bushels during the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year, exceeding last year’s second quarter by 126.5 million bushels. As such, U.S. corn exports during the first half of the marketing year are 264.5 million bushels above last year. As of the week ending April 3, 2025, the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)’s reported export commitments (accumulated exports and outstanding sales) stand at 2,166 million bushels. Those commitments are the second-largest recorded commitments at the end of March and further support this month’s increase in the export estimate.
Second-quarter domestic corn use is estimated at 3,233.6 million bushels, 21.8 million bushels lower than a year ago. With little changes estimated for food, seed and industrial usage during the second quarter from the previous year (down 1.9 million bushels), the lower domestic use is mostly reflected in weaker second-quarter feed and residual use, implied at 1,545.5 million bushels (down 1.3% from last year). Feed and residual use for the first half of the 2024-25 marketing year is 4.2% lower than last year. As such, the 2024-25 marketing year feed and residual use estimate is reduced by 25 million bushels this month to 5,750 million bushels.
Find additional information on the USDA Feed Outlook report from April.
