The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) showed this month’s 2025-26 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025-26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024-25. For 2024-25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose.
Corn production for 2025-26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1 billion from last month with a 1.9 million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023-24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents to $3.90 per bushel.
The 2025-26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025-26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July.
The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025-26 is forecast unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean meal price is forecast at $280 per short ton, down $10. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
The outlook for 2025-26 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area, only partly offset by a higher yield. The all-wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushel per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for hard red spring and white but increased for hard red winter, durum and soft red winter. Domestic use is lowered 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Millings Products report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for hard red winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. The 2025-26 season-average farm price is reduced by 10 cents per bushel to $5.30 on a lower projected U.S. corn price and price expectation for wheat the remainder of the marketing year.
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. For 2026, beef production is lowered due to reduced expected placements in the second half of 2025, as well as reduced cow slaughter in 2026.
Beef imports for 2025 are lowered to reflect reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as reduced shipments due to higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil. The reduction is carried into beef imports for 2026. The beef export forecast is reduced for 2025, reflecting tighter domestic supplies. The reduction is carried into lower exports for the first half of 2026. Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into 2026.
Find additional information on the USDA WASDE report from August.
