In the news affecting a dairy farmer's bottom line the first week of January 2026:
- Farmer sentiment drifts lower as trade uncertainty hangs over agriculture
- GDT index moves higher to start the year
- NEXT assists with nearly 62 million pounds of dairy product export sales
- U.S. secures continued tariff-free access to Colombian market
- USDA announces commodity payment rates for Farmer Bridge Assistance Program
- January FSA interest rates slightly lower
- Zoetis surpasses $2 million in donations to Folds of Honor
Farmer sentiment drifts lower as trade uncertainty hangs over agriculture
Farmer sentiment weakened slightly in December due to a modest decline in producers’ long-term outlook, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.
“Angst about prospects for U.S. soybean exports amid increasing competition from Brazil contributed to a slightly weaker outlook for the future among crop producers,” said James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.
He added, “Uncertainty about the future of agricultural trade continues to influence farmer sentiment. Nearly one in five (19%) respondents said they are uncertain about how U.S. tariff policy will affect the agricultural economy in the long run.”
The Ag Economy Barometer provides a monthly snapshot of farmer sentiment regarding the state of the agricultural economy. The survey collects responses from 400 producers whose annual market value of production is equal to or exceeds $500,000. Minimum targets by enterprise are as follows: 53% corn/soybeans, 14% wheat, 3% cotton, 19% beef cattle, 5% dairy and 6% hogs. Latest survey results, released Jan. 6, reflect ag producer outlooks as of Dec. 1-5.
GDT index moves higher to start the year
The price index of dairy product prices sold on the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) platform is up 6.3% in the auction held Dec. 2. This is the first event to trade higher since August.
Compared to the previous auction, prices for individual product categories were higher. Anhydrous milkfat and whole milk powder were up over 7%. Skim milk powder and buttermilk powder were up over 5%. Butter was up 3.8%, and cheddar cheese and mozzarella were up by 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. There was no change for lactose.
The GDT platform offers dairy products from several global companies: Fonterra (New Zealand), Darigold, Valley Milk and Dairy America (U.S.), Inalpi (Italy), Arla (Denmark), Arla Foods Ingredients (Denmark), BMI (Germany), Kerry Dairy (Ireland) and Solarec (Belgium).
The next GDT auction is Jan. 20.
NEXT assists with nearly 62 million pounds of dairy product export sales
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) Exports and Trade (NEXT) program wrapped up an impressive 2025 in December finishing with a strong fourth quarter. NEXT member cooperatives accepted 289 offers of export assistance from NEXT, helping them capture sales contracts for 20.4 million pounds of American-type cheese, 9.2 million pounds of butter, 1.1 million pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 15.4 million pounds of whole milk powder and 1.6 million pounds of cream cheese. NEXT also supported an additional 13.6 million pounds of skim milk powder and 335,000 pounds of milk protein concentrate in the fourth quarter through the program’s tariff mitigation pilots. NEXT supported export volume destined for customers in Asia, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, Middle East-North Africa, Oceania, South America and Sub-Saharan Africa will be delivered from October 2025 through May 2026.
Despite only launching halfway through the year, NEXT assisted export volume nearly matched full-year 2024 volumes under the prior Cooperatives Working Together (CWT) program – showcasing the strength of and need for the new, revised export program.
NEXT member cooperative year-end export sales for 2025 total nearly 142 million pounds of products – 50.3 million pounds of American-type cheese, 11.9 million pounds of butter, 3.4 million pounds of anhydrous milkfat, 42.5 million pounds of whole milk powder, 5.2 million pounds of cream cheese, 23.5 million pounds of skim milk powder and 4.7 million pounds of milk protein concentrate. Assisted dairy products were sent to 33 countries across the globe showcasing a broader reach than in previous years.
The referenced amounts of dairy products reflect current contracts for delivery, not completed export volumes.
U.S. secures continued tariff-free access to Colombian market
The U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) and NMPF welcomed the Colombian government’s decision to dismiss a Subsidies and Countervailing Measures investigation on milk powder imports from the U.S. due to lack of merit. The organizations expressed deep appreciation to the U.S. government for its collaboration with NMPF, USDEC and their members in successfully rebutting Colombia’s allegations.
USDEC and NMPF coordinated a multifaceted response to the case, which was launched in 2024 and alleged, without factual basis, that U.S. milk powders were unfairly subsidized and harmed Colombian dairy producers. Working closely with U.S. government officials, member companies and cooperatives, and Colombian industry partners, NMPF and USDEC demonstrated that the Colombian government’s methodology was flawed, that assumed benefits to the U.S. dairy industry were miscalculated, and that no evidence of harm to Colombia’s domestic dairy sector could be substantiated.
“U.S. dairy producers and processors expect our trading partners to honor their market access commitments,” said Krysta Harden, president and CEO of USDEC. “USDEC thanks the U.S. government in Washington and Bogota, as well as our members, for their support in presenting overwhelming evidence to rebut Colombia’s politically driven investigation. We welcome Colombia’s decision to abandon the case and maintain zero-tariff access for U.S. dairy exports in this important market.”
“The U.S. dairy industry secured hard-won access to the Colombian market more than a decade ago, and as of this year tariffs have now fully phased out,” said Gregg Doud, president and CEO of NMPF. “Attempts to restrict U.S. access through bogus claims and misused trade tools set a dangerous precedent not only for dairy exports but for all U.S. trade. We commend the U.S. government and our members for working with us to coordinate a strong, credible defense and to send a clear message that efforts to evade trade agreement commitments will not be tolerated.”
Jaime Castaneda, executive vice president for policy development and strategy for NMPF and USDEC, testified on behalf of the U.S. dairy industry at an October 2024 hearing, clarifying how USDA programs work to refute the unfounded claims by Colombian producers. Colombia initially imposed preliminary countervailing duties of 4.86% on U.S. milk powder imports but chose not to extend them when the temporary measures expired in January 2025, following the sustained campaign coordinated by NMPF and USDEC.
The Colombian Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism formally terminated the investigation on Dec. 30, 2025, determining that no additional tariffs were warranted.
U.S. dairy exports to Colombia exceeded $128 million in 2024. Tariffs on U.S. dairy products were fully eliminated at the beginning of 2026 under the U.S.-Colombia Free Trade Agreement, which NMPF and USDEC worked with the U.S. government to secure in 2012.
USDA announces commodity payment rates for Farmer Bridge Assistance Program
In December, the USDA announced $12 billion will be paid to American farmers in 2026. Of that amount, $11 billion consists of one-time Farmer Bridge Assistance Program (FBA) program payments. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins has since announced the eligible commodity per-acre payment rates.
Commodity, per-acre payment rates
- Barley: $20.51
- Canola: $23.57
- Chickpeas (large): $26.46
- Chickpeas (small): $33.36
- Corn: $44.36
- Cotton: $117.35
- Flax: $8.05
- Lentils: $23.98
- Mustard: $23.21
- Oats: $81.75
- Peanuts: $55.65
- Peas: $19.60
- Rice: $132.89
- Safflower: $24.86
- Sesame: $13.68
- Sorghum: $48.11
- Soybeans: $30.88
- Sunflower: $17.32
- Wheat: $39.35
FBA payments are based on 2025-planted acres, Economic Research Service cost of production and the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate Report. Double crop acres, including all initial and subsequently planted crops, are eligible. Prevent plant acres are not eligible.
All intended row-crop uses are eligible for FBA except grazing, volunteer stands, experimental, green manure, crops left standing and abandoned or cover crops.
“Farmers who qualify for the FBA Program can expect payments in their bank accounts by February 28, 2026,” Rollins said.
January FSA interest rates slightly lower
The announced interest rates on loans through the USDA’s FSA are slightly lower. As we begin January 2026, interest rates for operating and ownership loans (compared to December) are as follows:
- Farm operating loans (direct): 4.625%, unchanged
- Farm ownership loans (direct): 5.625%, down from 5.75%
- Farm ownership loans (direct, joint financing): 3.625%, down from 3.75%
- Farm ownership loans (down payment): 1.625%, down from 1.75%
- Emergency loan (amount of actual loss): 3.75%, unchanged
The FSA also offers guaranteed loans through commercial lenders at rates set by those lenders. For more information, producers can contact their local USDA Service Center.
Zoetis surpasses $2 million in donations to Folds of Honor
Through its Patriots’ Pledge program, Zoetis has contributed over $2 million to Folds of Honor in a four-year span, advancing the organization’s mission to provide academic scholarships for the families of fallen or disabled members of the U.S. Armed Forces and First Responders.
Since 2022, Zoetis has supported Folds of Honor by donating a portion of select cattle product sales, and in early 2025, expanded the program to include select pork and poultry products as well.
“Many of our customers have ties to a military service member or a first responder, or they know someone who does,” says Kristin Kasselman, senior vice president of the U.S. livestock business for Zoetis. “The animal agriculture industry takes pride in our country. Our customers also share a foundation of hard work, resilience and commitment to community, making this collaboration with Folds of Honor a natural fit for Zoetis.”
To date, Zoetis has helped support 361 scholarships for students who are pursuing agricultural and animal production studies.
Throughout 2026, Zoetis will continue to donate a portion of sales of select cattle, poultry and pork products to Folds of Honor.
